• The latest GDP revision showed growth of 3.8%, a phenomenal number for an economy of our size.
• Jobs data came in stronger than expected, which is good news for workers, but it complicates the Fed’s decision to cut rates.
• Stronger jobs could mean fewer or slower interest rate cuts, which markets may view as a headwind.
• Housing is surging: new home sales jumped 20.5% in August, reflecting significant pent-up demand.
• Real estate remains critical, representing roughly 25% of the U.S. economy. A major driver of growth.
• We remain bullish heading into year-end, though we continue to monitor potential risks.
• AI stocks (Nvidia, Microsoft, Oracle, IBM, and others) now make up 25% of the S&P 500. This is a concentration reminiscent of the dot-com era.
• History reminds us that rapid growth sectors often bring bubbles: dot-com companies rose fast, but the collapse dragged the market down 49% over 2½ years.
• Some leaders in the space, including Mark Zuckerberg and Sam Altman, have even voiced concerns about a bubble.
• While the AI revolution is real and transformative, history shows that building new infrastructure (railroads, the internet) often involves painful booms and busts.
• The encouraging news: RPOA’s Invest and Protect Strategy is designed to shield retirement assets in case today’s enthusiasm turns into tomorrow’s bear market.
• We cannot predict with certainty whether this is a bubble, but we can plan to protect your retirement if it is.
• Our mission remains clear: help you enjoy your second childhood without parental supervision without worrying about the next downturn.

Transcript:
Hello everyone, and welcome to our Market Alert video for today, which is 09/26/25 I hope this video finds you healthy, wealthy and wise. We have a ton to talk about the GDP, our gross domestic product. That good news there also going to talk about the jobs that came in and what that means, housing starts, interest rates, all that boring financial stuff. And we’re going to have more fun than a human being should be allowed to have when talking about all this boring financial stuff. But we’re also going to talk about, are we in the process of building another bubble, the likes of which we saw in y, 2k and the argument can be made for that very strongly right now. So we’re going to talk about that. But before we get started, last week, I told you that I was going to be spending the weekend with my two grandchildren, my four year old and my four month old, six month old, because his mom and dad were celebrating their anniversary, their wedding anniversary, and so we went there to take care of them, and everybody said, Ken, they’re going to wear you out. You’re going to be so tired, you’re going to need a nap every day. Well, you know what? I worked out. I was ready mentally. I was prepared for the challenge. And you know what, by the end of each day, he was like, looking at me like I let her go to sleep. I won. And then the other interesting thing that happened last week, which is really nice, is that we had client, a client event, where we had several, many clients at it, and it was a lot of fun. And it’s always fun for me to visit with clients and SCWPerS. And one in particular came up to me and said, Ken, I’m a SCWPer. I’ve been a SCWPer for 12 years. And for those of you who don’t remember or don’t know what SCWPer stands for, that is the acronym for second childhood without parental supervision. So when a client of ours retires, we call you a SCWPer. And he said, I’ve been a SCWPer for 12 years now. And he said, I just want to thank you. He says, we have more money today than we did when we retired. And we’ve been SCWPering for 12 years. We’ve been having a lot of fun. And I said, awesome. That’s great. Thank you. That’s why I do this. You just validated my existence. And I also had a meeting with a long time SCWPer. She’s been a SCWPer now for 28 years. She’s 95 years old. And when we were talking, she said, I don’t even look at my investments. I don’t do anything. You guys take care of everything. For me, I have complete peace of mind. And I said, you know, Pat, you’re 95 years old? Would you be willing to do a podcast with me to share with everyone you know what it’s like to be 95 and your life and your stories and your relationship with us? And she became a client right after her husband passed, and he said, When he passed, he had a binder with everything in it, and the front page said, if I go call Ken Moray, and at the time, we had a lot of cookies, he said, call the cookie guy. And he had my phone number. So she called me, but you know, she’s going to be in the podcast with me, and that’s going to be really, really fun. The one thing she said is, but I’m not coming to you. You’re coming to me because she’s moved out of town now. And I said, that’s fine. We’ll come to your house. We’ll do it at your house. And she said, Okay, if you’re willing to do that, then I’m in and she’s sharp in body and mind. It’s great. So I’m looking forward to sharing her with you. So let’s talk about the financial stuff, the boring financial stuff. So this week, we got numbers the gross domestic product, all the products and services that we, that we produce in this country, was revised from 3.3 up to 3.8 which for an economy our size, 3.8% growth is phenomenal. I mean, if we have the biggest economy in the world, and for it to grow like that, that is a phenomenal number. So that’s a good thing. Now it’s kind of a good and a bad thing at the same time, because, well, I’ll get into that next. The next number that came out was jobs data, and it came in stronger than expected. Now, normally you would think that jobs data coming in stronger than expected would be a good thing, right? You want people to have jobs, and you want that to be what’s going on? Well, the reason why it’s good and bad at the same time is because the Federal Reserve has said that they’re now going to focus on jobs and they’re going to focus on lowering interest rates to get jobs to support the job market. Well, if the jobs are doing okay without their help, then they might not lower interest rates as much. And therefore the market’s not going to like that. The bond market’s not going to like that. Investors are going to go, we want lower interest rates. That’s what we want. You’ve got to give it to us. So the fact. Jobs came in better than expected, is in a way, for the markets, of bad news. The other thing that was really interesting is that because of the anticipation of lower interest rates, we saw new home sales go up by 20.5% in the month of August. Think about that 20.5% in one month. That is just incredible. It just goes to show the pent up demand there is out there for homes and real estate. And so if the Fed does lower interest rates some more, we can see that the real estate market could go significantly up house construction and home buying and all that. And the reason why that’s so significant is because real estate represents about 25% of our economy, and that’s new carpets and air conditioning units and refurbishing of homes. And you know, all the stuff that goes into when you buy a new house, or if you’re building one, and all that. It’s really all good. So from the standpoint of where we go from here, we’re very bullish heading into the end of this year, but there is potentially a fly in the ointment, and what could that be? Well, we’ve been looking at the AI stocks, the companies that are benefiting from this whole AI revolution. That would be Nvidia and IBM and Oracle and, you know, all those kind Microsoft, etc, and those companies have now become 25% of the s, p5, 100 index of the stock market. And the reason why that’s a little bit concerning is because if you go back to y, 2k, and you look at all the companies that were involved in building the internet, they were 30% of the s, p5, 100 index, and we’re at 25 with these AI companies. So we’re headed towards 30 the way they’re growing their stock prices are and the other thing that’s a little bit concerning is that they’re up about 100% for the last two years. So, and that’s very similar to what the.com companies did during the.com bubble. They were going up gangbusters. You know, 120% a year, 25 50% a year. And that’s what’s happening with these companies. Stock. We saw Oracle go up, what, 40% in one month. So, I mean, so you know, that does feel a lot like a bubble. And Zuck Zuckerberg and Altman, Zuckerberg with Facebook and Altman with chat GPT both said they think we’re in a bubble. And does the market listen to that? No, because, hey, we’re building the AI. We’re This is the future. We want to invest in it. We’re going to make all we’re going to make so much money, and look how much they’ve gone up already. That doesn’t, I don’t want to hear it. And that is very, very reminiscent of the dot coms when they did that. And if you look back at previous times in history where we’ve built out a very important infrastructure, the railroads, the Internet. In both of those cases, at the beginning, people were super enthusiastic, investing like crazy into those things, funding them to help and they used that money to build it out. The railroads were important. The Internet was important. But both of those had significant bubbles, and they both burst in a dramatic way. The tech company stock took the stock market down by 49% in the y 2k bear market, and that one was over two and a half years that it took to play itself out. So it’s a long time and a big loss. What will this one do? I don’t know. And is this a bubble? I don’t know, but I can tell you this. I’m not worried about it, and I’m not worried about it for you. And the reason why is because we have our invest and protect strategy. It is very well designed, in our view, to protect us against a big, bad bear market, like, like, what would happen if these companies went down. I mean, think about it, in y, 2k 30% of those companies went down, 90% 90% so that’s 27% of that, 49% just from that. And then, because of the psychology and everybody was freaking out and scared, the rest of the stock market went down with it as well. So will this happen? I don’t know, but boy, am I happy we have our investor protect strategy to protect us. If it does, and it very well could, we’ll see. So share this video with your friends, with your family, with your business associates. In fact, do more than that. Send them our way. Recommend us to them if they are about to retire. If they’re within five years of retirement or they’re already retired, send them our way. We want to help as many people as we possibly can, and that’s our mission in life, so help us to do it. So thank you for watching this video. I sure hope it found you healthy, wealthy and wise. Like and subscribe, and we’ll talk soon.

Please note: transcript has been modified after the time of recording. 

References to RPOA clients and their experience should not be viewed as the sole determining factor in obtaining or retaining RPOA’s services and do not guarantee client satisfaction, success of a particular service or investment, or financial outcome. Experiences may vary from those discussed. RPOA did not provide direct or indirect compensation for their testimonial. 

Economic indicators and stock market performance cannot be predicted. Opinions expressed regarding the economy and the stock market belong solely to Ken Moraif on behalf of Retirement Planners of America and may not accurately portray actual future performance of the economy or stock market outcomes. Opinions expressed in this video is intended to be for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as investment advice for individuals who are not clients of Retirement Planners of America. All content provided is the opinion of Ken Moraif, CEO and Founder of RPOA Advisors, Inc. (d/b/a Retirement Planners of America ) (“Retirement Planners of America”, “RPOA”). ©Copyright 2023