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The Economy Is Slowing Down, Is That Good?

Hello, and welcome to our Market Alert video for today, which is June 14, 2024. And in case you haven’t noticed, I am not dressed in my shirt and tie today. I’m actually we just finished the podcast. And I thought that maybe you’d like to see what I look like when I’m doing the podcast. So I’m pretty casual. It’s a creative endeavor, so I wear colors. And so, and I’m also this is a portable kit that we have to do the podcast in. And so I have like a James Bond suitcase that I carry on with me when I’m traveling. So I can always do the podcast regardless of where I am. And that’s the case this time. So it is June 14th, a very, very, very eventful week, we had all kinds of information, this week economic data, I want to get into it. But I also want to share with you something interesting. I like to go to business conferences to sharpen the sword, if you will, to learn about what’s going on in the industry, in the markets, with technology, artificial intelligence, all that kind of stuff. And so I went to a business conference in Nashville. And while we were there, and this is how weird it is to be me. Okay, so I apparently they believe that I am some sort of a VIP. And so it turns out that Keith Urban, got his picture taken with me. And so I want to show you that picture right now. So here’s me with Keith Urban, and yeah, he got his picture taken with me. It’s true, pretty fit looking guy. Pretty good looking. My daughters were like, Oh my gosh, you actually, we’re in the presence of Keith Urban. And I’m like, yeah, yeah. And then another thing that happened that was kind of interesting was we we also we went to the Grand Ole Opry. And when we were there, we saw Jelly Roll. And by the way, I did not know who Jelly Roll was. But he apparently is huge in the country, Western circles. And an amazing entertainer. I can see why. But anyway, so we’re there. And the whole, we had the seven members of the RPOA team go. And so we were all like sitting in a row together to watch the show at the Grand Ole Opry. And to my right about seven people, six people down. This gentleman kept looking over and looking over and looking over. And finally he goes, and we were there a little early. So the show hadn’t started and he looks over. He goes, You’re Ken Moraif, aren’t you? And I said, Yes. And he goes, I’m a huge fan. I listen to your show all the time. And I was like, Wow, that’s amazing. And then he kept looking at me. And I kept looking at him. And I said, Do you want my autograph? And he goes, yes. So it’s crazy being me, let me tell you. Anyway, so let’s go over the four major things happened this week, when it comes to economic data. The first one was that the CPI, the Consumer Price Index, inflation came in, and it was lower. And that was very good news. In fact, it was lower than expected. And so that means inflation is coming down. That’s good news. The Fed wants that to happen. So they can start lowering interest rates and get inflation down to their target of 2%. So that was all good. The second thing that happened was the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, himself, came out and told us that they’re gonna leave interest rates where they are for the time being, but they said, Now, this is a change. But still, they said that they were going to lower interest rates, maybe one more time this year, or one time this year. Should I say. Previously, about a month ago, they said they were going to do it three times this year. So they’re kind of tempering what they’re doing. But the data is driving their decisions, as they’re saying. And apparently the data is, what did he say good progress, but not quite yet the confidence they need for three, so they’re going to do one instead, we’ll see. The other thing that came in was the PPI, the Producer Price Index. So this was very interesting, because it is the cost of producing goods. And why is that important? Well, because if the cost of producing goods goes up, guess what businesses do? They raise their prices. And if they do, guess what that does to the cost of what you buy, right, it’s inflationary. And so the PPI came in, and it was also lower. So that’s a good sign. One last item came in, and it’s a little troubling, but not too much. And that is the consumer confidence number came in, and it was down a little bit. So basically, the consumer is now starting to feel the effects of these high interest rates of all this inflation that we’re having. And we’re starting to see that happen. So Overall, it was a good sign when it comes to people who want interest rates to go down the Federal Reserve to lower them. Because stock prices tend to go up when interest rates go down, bond prices tend to go up when interest rates go down. So investors are all excited about that possibility. So overall, that was good from that perspective. However, not all, it’s not all a silver, there are dark clouds in this picture. One is the real estate market is slowing down significantly, both from the residential and the commercial side, it does represent 25% of our economy. And the rate that it is slowing down is increasing. And if it goes into a recession, a bad one, it could pull the whole economy down with it. The other thing also is there are other areas of the economy that are slowing down. And so one of the things that makes it difficult for the Federal Reserve is that the US economy is like a big giant oil tanker, you can’t turn it on a dime, you know, you have and so if the momentum of the economy is it’s going into recession, and that momentum accelerates, to get out of that momentum is very, very difficult. And if the Federal Reserve is slow to act, or behind the curve, as they have been this whole process with all of this inflation, if they’re behind the curve, we could have a really bad recession. Now, we don’t see that coming. But it’s possible. And that’s why we are always glad that we have our Invest and Protect Strategy to get us out before hopefully any major damage is done. And that’s why I think you have I hope you’re sleeping at night and you have that peace of mind we want you to have. So SCWPer Nation. I hope you’re out there SCWPering your little tails off. I hope you’re enjoying life and not worrying about this stuff, letting us do it for you. And for those of you clients who are not SCWPerS yet. We want to get you to that point where you retire and you enjoy that second childhood without parental supervision. As soon as it’s appropriate for you. That’s our goal our noble obligation. And we’re going to hopefully get you there as soon as possible. So thanks for watching. Share this video with your friends and business associates and we will talk soon.

Please note: transcript has been modified after the time of recording. 

Economic indicators and stock market performance cannot be predicted. Opinions expressed regarding the economy and the stock market belong solely to Ken Moraif on behalf of Retirement Planners of America and may not accurately portray actual future performance of the economy or stock market outcomes. Opinions expressed in this video is intended to be for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as investment advice for individuals who are not clients of Retirement Planners of America. All content provided is the opinion of Ken Moraif, CEO and Founder of RPOA Advisors, Inc. (d/b/a Retirement Planners of America ) (“Retirement Planners of America”, “RPOA”). ©Copyright 2023