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Thankful For Our Invest And Protect Strategy

Hello, and welcome to our Market Alert video for today, which is June 21, 2024. I’m glad you are with us, I hope everything is all roses and strawberries and cream and the sun is shining on you and that you are healthy, wealthy and wise. And for those of you who are SCWPerS, I hope you’re out there SCWPering your little tails off, I hope you’re enjoying your second childhood without parental supervision to the max. So I want to report to you something that that we just had our my grandson visit, haven’t seen him in about two or three months. He’s a little over two and a half years old. And his speech and his ability to form sentences has increased dramatically. It’s like remarkable how fast they learn and how much they improve. He can now formulate complete sentences. So he’s learned how to say no, now in complete sentences before he would just say no, and throw a temper tantrum. Well, now he’s very good at saying no, I will not do that. No, I will not put on my shoes. No, I will not go to bed, he could actually formulate entire sentences now to say no with he’s getting really good at that. Anyway, we, we got more economic data this week, that is kind of interesting. We had two big, big, big data points. One is retail sales, which is a reflection of the consumer. And the other is housing starts, which is a reflection of the real estate industry. And combined, they represent 95% of our economy, the consumer is 70%. And the real estate sector is the other 25. So basically, they’re it. And in both cases, they are slowing down. They revised the retail sales from last April. And they revised downward. It always I always marveled at how, you know, they come out with numbers. And then two months later, they go okay, well, we’re revising all those numbers, we don’t like them anymore. We like these numbers better. But anyway, they did that and retail sales was revised downward. And home sales are now down to the lowest level since 2020. And you may recall what was going on there. And of course, it was the pandemic. So those are two worrying signs. So that’s why I can tell you that I am I invest right along with you, you know, in our portfolios, and I’m very glad that we have our sell strategy, our Invest and Protect Strategy ready to be enacted, because it is possible that the economy which is showing signs of slowing down at an increasing rate, that it goes into a recession. And if it does, we could have a pretty significant bear market. And this could be done, it happened, because the Fed could react too slowly to these numbers, not do anything about it in time. And we could have a detrimental effect. There’s precedent for this back in the early 80s, Paul Volcker, who was the Federal Reserve chairman at the time, you know, he they did the same thing, they waited too long to start stimulating the economy. And all of their high interest rates caused a bad recession. And so that’s kind of the dynamic that we could be facing now. So because of that, I’m very glad that we have our Invest and Protect Strategy. So as we’ve said, in previous videos, the the US economy is so big, it’s like an oil, an oil tanker, you can’t turn it on a dime. And so if it starts and the problem right now is that the Fed continues to say the Federal Reserve continues to say that they’re going to be data dependent. Well, data dependent means you’re relying on data, that’s backward looking. And the problem with that is if the data says we’re in, we’re heading into a recession, and now they decide to act on it, you can’t turn this tanker around quickly. And if they’re behind the curve, we could end up with a pretty significant bear market, a bear market and a bad recession. Now, we don’t give that a high probability right now. But we give it an increasing probability over before, okay with the data we’ve gotten over the last two weeks. So again, we’re not panicking. It’s not time to sell. We’re not saying that. But we are saying that the economy is starting to slow down at an increasing rate. And if it continues to do that, and the Fed doesn’t act to mitigate that we could have a bad recession and a bad bear market. And of course, that’s why I said I’m glad we have our Invest and Protect Strategy ready to be enacted. So I’m not trying to worry you let us do the worrying for you. That’s our job. We want to get the gray hairs for you so that you don’t have to that’s please don’t worry about this. Don’t don’t get freaked out. But it is important that I keep you abreast so you know what’s going on. Alright, so thank you for watching this video. Please share it with your friends and family as many people as you can we’d love to create as many SCWPerS as we possibly can we consider that to be our noble obligation. So again thanks for watching and we’ll talk soon.

Please note: transcript has been modified after the time of recording. 

Economic indicators and stock market performance cannot be predicted. Opinions expressed regarding the economy and the stock market belong solely to Ken Moraif on behalf of Retirement Planners of America and may not accurately portray actual future performance of the economy or stock market outcomes. Opinions expressed in this video is intended to be for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as investment advice for individuals who are not clients of Retirement Planners of America. All content provided is the opinion of Ken Moraif, CEO and Founder of RPOA Advisors, Inc. (d/b/a Retirement Planners of America ) (“Retirement Planners of America”, “RPOA”). ©Copyright 2023