• It looks like what our Invest and Protect Strategy and sanity checks told us to do was a good move.
• First, let’s talk about all this up and down.
• When we saw the big 10% update, it told us that when the tariffs are behind us, a lot of the angst in the market should go away.
• The challenge, of course, is, when will that happen?
• We got the excitement about the 90-day reprieve, but negotiations often take all kinds of twists and turns before finally coming to a head.
• So we think the market swings over the past couple days, going way up and way down, is just noise.
• China is talking about how they’re going to rally the countries that are behind them and put tariffs on the US.
• Maybe it’s a negotiating ploy, or maybe it’s something they want to do.
• China is a big trading partner of ours, and that could cause inflation in the United States if the cost of products we buy from them go way up.
• Our bond portfolio is up for the year.
• So, it’s doing its job of balancing, or diversifying, what the market is bringing us.
• As we view it, the fact that our sanity checks told us to sell only half of our stock portfolio is validated, because there’s as much upside as down.
• It could be very possible that the market goes way up, and we would not want to miss out on that.
• If it goes down, our downside risk is very mitigated, as we’ve described in previous videos.
• In June of ’22, inflation peaked at 9%.
• They just announced the inflation numbers for March, and it’s the lowest inflation we’ve had going back at least three years.
• It seems like nobody cares because they are focused on tariffs.
• But it is good news, because it gives the Federal Reserve room to start lowering interest rates, which bodes well for the future if they start doing so in May or June.
• Looking at our strategy, as the market goes down, our buy signal goes down at the same time.
• The converse is also true, that as the market goes up, our buy signal goes up as well.
• Our sell signal came at a much higher point than it was a year ago, because the moving average moved up.
• Today, the curve is starting to bend.
• We’d like to see the curve bending downward, because as it goes down, the place where we buy goes down with it, and we want to buy low if that’s possible.
• One of the sanity checks that we use is called the yield curve.
• The yield curve is basically one of the best predictors of recessions because it’s predicted every single recession we’ve had in the last 100 years.
• The problem is that it also predicts recessions that don’t happen.
• The yield curve was predicting a recession, and it’s a very accurate predictor of that, before all the talk about tariffs came.
• So, the fact that the market can go up a lot when investors get excited does not mean that there wasn’t something coming already.
• It looked like there was a recession in the works before all the tariff stuff came along.
• It’s possible that all this tariff stuff could make the recession that was going to come anyway, worse.
• If that’s the case, then the market could go down again.
• But let us worry about it for you, so you can spend your retirement enjoying it the way you want to.
• The market is going to go up and down, and if you’re worrying, you’re not going to have a stress free life, which is what we want for you.
• We’re minding the store for you and we’re going to play this as it comes.
• There’s no way to predict what President Trump is going to do in advance, so we need to play the cards as they are dealt to us, not try to predict which cards are going to be dealt to us.

Hello everyone, and welcome to our Market Alert video for today, which is April 11, 2025 and we have a lot to talk about, but man, I am dizzy. Are you dizzy? Is this crazy? I mean, it’s like, I’m Oh my goodness. So we have a lot to talk about. I want to, in this video, go over with you something that apparently nobody cares about, and that is the inflation numbers that we got, which were good. In addition, where are we in this whole tariff thing? And you know, what’s the devil’s in the details, as you may know. And so where do we go from here on all these negotiations and all that. What about China? What about the possibility of a recession? We’re going to talk about that. We’re also going to talk about that our sanity checks told us what to do, right? And it looks like that was a good move. We’ll talk about our bond portfolio. And I also want to share with you some interesting and I think good news with regard to how our strategy works. So we have a full agenda today on our video. I hope you’ll watch the whole thing, and thank you for watching. So I hope this video would find you healthy, wealthy and wise, and all of you out there in SCWPerS Nation, I hope you’re just not even worrying about all this stuff, you know. I hope you’re out there enjoying playing golf, traveling, you know, whatever it is that you’re wanting to do in your retirement and that you’re enjoying your second childhood without parental supervision. And for those of you who are not SCWPerS yet, who are working towards your retirement, we’re going to get you there, if it’s the last thing we do, so we’re going to work diligently to get you there. So I hope all of this finds you in a good place. So let’s talk about all this up and down. What does it tell us? Well, certainly when we saw the big 10% update, it told us that when the tariffs are behind us, a lot of the angst in the market should go away, a lot of the uncertainty and the fear and that certainly could result in a huge upswing. The challenge, of course, is, when will that happen? Okay, we got, you know, excitement about the 90 day reprieve, but the devil’s in the details. You know, when it comes to negotiations, for any of you who’ve been involved, you know that they take all kinds of twists and turns, and at the very end is when everybody actually starts to get really mad at each other before it finally comes to a head. And so we haven’t been through that whole process yet. And so the excitement over a couple of days, you know, where it’s way up or way down at this point is noise. We shouldn’t overreact to it. The other thing also, of course, is China, and China is talking about how they’re going to, you know, rally their troops all the countries that are behind them, and put tariffs on the US. So they’re, they’re doubling down on this, and maybe it’s a negotiating ploy, or maybe it’s something they want to do. So we’ll see what happens with that. But certainly, you know, China is a big trading partner of ours, and certainly that could cause inflation here, in this, in the in the United States, if they start, if the cost of products we buy from them go way up. So we have that dynamic, all right, so yes, the market’s going way up and way down on any given day. But let’s not overreact to those. You know, I’ve gotten, we’ve gotten emails from clients, let’s buy now, and let’s sell everything. Let’s not do any of that. Let us drive. Let us mind the store for you, and like I said, you go. Have fun, enjoy. Let us worry about this for you. Our bond portfolio. I want to talk about that with you. So what is good about our bond portfolio is, so far as I record this, our bond portfolio is up for the year, and so it’s doing its job right the markets way down, and the bond portfolio is up for the year. So it’s doing a good job of balancing, or, you know, diversifying, what the market is bringing us and so, and the fact that we our sanity checks told us to sell only half of our stock portfolio, as I view it right now, is validated. It was right to do that, because there’s as much upside as down, and it could be very possible that the market goes way up, and we would not want to miss out on that. And if it goes down, our downside risk is very mitigated, as we’ve described in previous videos. Now if you don’t know the four sanity checks, then I would encourage you to watch the videos that we put out over the last week where we go into some detail about that. So the other thing also that I want to go over with you is our strategy and the inflation. So let me. Let me start off. I want to share your my screen with you here. So give me a moment to do that. And this chart right here shows inflation going back to the peak when it was at 9% in June of 22 and here we are, over here. This is March. They just announced the inflation numbers for March, and it’s the lowest inflation we’ve had going back at least, you know, three, almost three years. And was this treated with fanfare? And look, the Feds winning the game on inflation? Is that all good? No, nobody cares, right? It’s the tariffs. But it is good news, and it is, it gives the Federal Reserve room to start lowering interest rates. And so that’s a good thing, should they start doing that in May or June. So that bodes well for the future. Now, the other thing is that I want to show you is our strategy. And so this chart right here is y2k so this is the bear market of y2k and what you can see is the blue parts here in this chart are where our strategy says to be in investment mode, to be invested, and the white part is where our strategy says that we go on defense, we go into protection mode. And what you can see is also, so the black squiggly line then is the stock market. It’s the S&P500 index. And the red line, which is what I want to talk about today with you, is the 200 day moving average. So what you can see is that when the market is going down, what it does is it bends the 200 day moving average line down with it, and therefore our buy signal goes down at the same time. So the longer the market is down, the more it pushes that red line down, and therefore the lower our buy signal will be. And that’s a good thing, right? We want it to be as low as possible when we buy. The converse is also true, and that is that as the market goes up, you can see that the red line the moving average goes up with it, and therefore right here where it turned white in 2007 November of oh seven where our sell signal came, it’s way higher than where the buy signal was. Why? Because as the market goes up, it brings the moving average up with it, and therefore our sell will be at a higher point. So right now, what’s happening? And I apologize for this chart not being easier to see, but again, the red line right here is the 200 day moving average. This is a year. I think, yeah, it’s a year. And the blue squiggly line is the stock market. So what you can see right here is, first of all that our sell signal came at a much higher point than it was a year ago, because the moving average moved up. But more importantly, to what’s going on today, you can see that the curve is starting to bend. And ideally what we’d like to see is the curve bending downward. Because as it goes down, the place where we buy goes down with it, and we want to buy low if we if that’s possible. So right now, the goal would be that the market trades sideways for a while, and it lands, you know, it goes up and down, but it trades sideways, and it lets this line kind of bend downward, and that would be the ideal, but of course, we have no control over that. Now let’s look into the future and talk about something that if you watched our video on our four sanity checks, one of the sanity checks that we use is called the yield curve, and the yield curve is basically one of the best predictors of recessions there is because it’s predicted every single recession we’ve had in the last 100 years. The problem with the yield curve, of course, is that it predicts recessions that don’t happen, or it does it way early, and so it’s hard to tell exactly when that recession will come. The point, though, is that the yield curve did say, is saying that we’re headed into recession. Okay, so it’s predicting a recession, and it’s a very accurate predictor of that, and it said that before all the talk about tariffs came. So you know, the fact that the market can go up a lot and we get excited about it does not mean that there wasn’t something coming already, right? There was a recession in the works. It looked like already before all the tariff stuff came along. So it’s possible that all this tariff stuff could make the recession that was going to come anyway, worse. And if that’s the case, then the market could go down again. So I guess what I’m saying is, you know, I know that when the market’s going way up, oh no, let’s go back in, and when it’s going down, oh no, let’s sell more. But let us worry about it for you, because if you do that, you’re going to drive yourself crazy. It’s going to go up and down, and you’re not going to have a stress free life, which is what we want for you. So we’re minding the store we’re going to play this as it comes to us, there’s no way to predict what President Trump is going to do in advance. I think that’s pretty clear. So we need to play the cards as they are dealt to us, not try to predict which cards are going to be dealt to us. Okay, so we’ll do that for you. So I hope this video finds you healthy, wealthy and wise. I hope that all these videos we are sending you achieve our core value, which is to communicate with you before you even think to ask us, and therefore, hopefully gives you peace of mind. And then also make sure you share this video with your friends and anybody that you think could benefit from it that’s freaking out right now, and certainly like and subscribe it, because it helps us out a lot. We’d really appreciate it, and we’ll talk soon.

Please note: transcript has been modified after the time of recording. 

Economic indicators and stock market performance cannot be predicted. Opinions expressed regarding the economy and the stock market belong solely to Ken Moraif on behalf of Retirement Planners of America and may not accurately portray actual future performance of the economy or stock market outcomes. Opinions expressed in this video is intended to be for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as investment advice for individuals who are not clients of Retirement Planners of America. All content provided is the opinion of Ken Moraif, CEO and Founder of RPOA Advisors, Inc. (d/b/a Retirement Planners of America ) (“Retirement Planners of America”, “RPOA”). ©Copyright 2023