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Is It On The Table Or Off The Table?

Hello, and hi there SCWPer Nation and also all you clients some very exciting news to share with you we got the jobs numbers this morning and want to go over that with you, perhaps the most important number we’re gonna see this month even more important than the inflation number we’re gonna get next week. But before we get into that, I promised you a surprise. And in our video, as you guys know, I took 190 mile six day bicycle tour around the French wine region. And something happened in Saint-Émilion. That was kind of fun, interesting, and was a surprise. So I want to share that video with you. And then when we come back, we’ll talk about all this boring financial stuff about inflation and the Federal Reserve and our investments and all that stuff. So stay tuned.
So we are preparing for the arrival of the Olympic torch is going to be running along this thing. And there’s a military presence for it, which is kind of I don’t know if I feel safe or if I feel unsafe because of it. But it is what it is. So this is the lady that is actually going to be getting the Olympic flame handoff. Awesome. So this is the official transfer of the Olympic flame here in Saint-Émilion, France. And this is where it’s right going to happen right here. It’s also like a disco party. I mean, I didn’t think they’d have a disco party at the changing of the flame. But they did.
Yeah, who knew I’d be attending a disco party, when they’re when they’re transferring the flame. And also, those two ladies don’t look like the biggest athletes in the world with all due respect. The one lady that I talked to, she apparently is the leader of one of the best, or the most helpful charities for young children, underprivileged children in France. And so it was a quite an honor for her to receive the flame. So that’s what that was all about. Anyway, let’s talk about what happened. We got, once again, economist has shown us that they have no clue. All right, so the jobs numbers that were expected this morning, were 180,000 new jobs created. That’s what economists said was going to be the number. Well guess what it actually came in at 270,000 Jobs came in. So way more than what they said. So and these are people with massive staffs, they’ve got like hundreds of millions of dollars of technology and all this kind of stuff. And yet, you know, it just goes to show you now, we’ve entitled this video, you know, what’s on? Is it on the table? Or is it off the table? And the reason why that’s the case is because the conversation all year, as we’ve chronicled has been, are they going to lower interest rates this year or not? Or are they going to raise interest rates? Well, with jobs coming in this hot now the conversation is maybe they need to raise interest rates so as to slow the economy down, get inflation under control? Well, let’s pause for a moment. There’s two different ways that you can look at the data that we’ve been getting. And the Federal Reserve has said that they’re going to be data dependent. What that means in our view is they’re going to look at the data that they get to make decisions about what to do going forward. The problem with that, in our view is that you’re driving a car by looking in the rearview mirror. jobs numbers are yesterday’s news. They’re not tomorrow’s news. And so being data dependent means you’re gonna have to rely on information telling you about the past and extrapolating the future. We think that if you look at the forward looking data, which is the momentum of the economy, you’ll see that our economy our economy is slowing down. And in some cases a lot faster than maybe even the Fed wants. So do they lower interest rates, you have to think of the economy as this big giant cruise, you know, oil tanker, right, the US economy is big. And if you want to turn it, if you got to start turning way in advance, so if the economy is slowing down, you got to start lowering interest rates way in advance, you can’t wait to the last second, because then you could have a big bad recession, unemployment, and all the things that nobody wants. So our view is that the forward looking numbers are not as good as the rear looking numbers. And so we still think there’s a possibility that the Fed will lower interest rates this year. Now, since the beginning of the year, we’ve been saying we didn’t think they were going to do it before July. And now it looks like even July is off the table with those jobs numbers that just came in. So overall, though, companies as we said, what drives stock prices, in our view is profits. And companies continue to show good profits. And that being the case, people have jobs, obviously, this number came in strong. If they buy stuff profits follow, and we think that the outlook still looks positive. It’s very important though to always remember that things can change in the blink of an eye. And that’s why we always take heart and confidence and we can sleep at night knowing that we have our Invest and Protect Strategy ready to be implemented should we need it. But as things look right now, we think we’re not going to need to so thanks for watching this video. I hope you enjoyed it as much as I enjoyed making it for you. And we’ll talk soon.

Please note: transcript has been modified after the time of recording. 

Economic indicators and stock market performance cannot be predicted. Opinions expressed regarding the economy and the stock market belong solely to Ken Moraif on behalf of Retirement Planners of America and may not accurately portray actual future performance of the economy or stock market outcomes. Opinions expressed in this video is intended to be for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as investment advice for individuals who are not clients of Retirement Planners of America. All content provided is the opinion of Ken Moraif, CEO and Founder of RPOA Advisors, Inc. (d/b/a Retirement Planners of America ) (“Retirement Planners of America”, “RPOA”). ©Copyright 2023