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Did I Tell You I Told You So?

Hello, and welcome to our Market Alert video for today, which is March 1, 2024. January and February are over already. Oh my gosh, time flies when you’re having fun, doesn’t it? So we have a lot to talk about not the least of which is the PCE deflator. Ooh, okay, what’s that? Well, we’ll talk about it because it’s an important number. It’s the one the Federal Reserve looks at. So that’s why we want to look at it too. But before we do that, I want to tell you that I’m going skiing next week, and my grandson Nathaniel is going to be joining. And so my daughter sent us a picture of him in his cute new skiing outfit, because this is the first time he’s almost three years old now. So he’s going to go to his first ski class, he’s going to get on the slopes for the first time. It is amazing how cute. Any clothing that a baby wears is, I mean, the little shoes. There’s just so cute. And then he’s got the little earmuffs, and he’s got the coat and he looks so cute in his ski outfit. We’ll see how cute he is when we put skis on him. And he’s screaming at us because I hate this! I’m cold. Anyway, should be a lot of fun. We’ll see if he takes to it or not. I’ll keep you posted. So the PCE deflator what is that? Well, it is the inflation number that the Federal Reserve looks at, mostly. And so it’s the one that includes the consumers, and which all of them do, but this one gives us a particular weight to it, since they are 70% of our economy. And that’s an important part of it. So the number actually came in exactly where the market expected. And so therefore, it was kind of a ho hum moment. But what do we take from it anyway? What will we take from it is that inflation may not be coming down as fast as everybody wants, but it is still trending downward. And so therefore the narrative, the thought that the Fed is going to be lowering interest rates and inflation is coming under control continues to be the story. However, it’s been interesting to me to watch, you know, all through last year, and even the year before that, how so many people were any good news, and they jumped to the rosiest scenario possible. So right now, because of that, the jump on was okay, they’re gonna cut rates in March. Well, it’s March now. So that it now, May or May, they’re gonna cut rates in May May. And not only that, but six of them this year, six rate cuts. So you know, this is what they were saying last year, at the end of last year, they said they were gonna lower interest rates as well and didn’t happen. And these are the big guys. This is Bank of America, JP Morgan, you know, Citi, big, big players seem to be overly optimistic every step of the way, it seems like, Well, we think that inflation is going to come down, but the Fed is not going to lower interest rates before July. And when they do we think they’re going to lower interest rates very, very carefully. They’re going to do one, and then they’re going to wait and see what happens. And then they’re going to do another and wait and see what happens. They do not want to repeat the mistake that Paul Volcker made back in the 80s, who was the Federal Reserve chairman at that time, that lowered interest rates too soon, inflation went back up again. And next thing, you know, he had the hit to raise interest rates, it caused all kinds of havoc, and we don’t want that this time around. So therefore, we think still the narrative the our view, our Fearless Forecast that inflation is going to keep coming down and that the Fed will lower rates in the second half of this year is intact. So what does that mean for our investments? From our stock portfolio is still the economy seems to be holding despite these high rates, the consumer seems to be okay, jobs are okay. So therefore, profits should be okay. And you guys know, we think that what drives the stock market is profits. It’s not inflation, it’s not employment, it’s nothing. It’s profits. If companies are making money, their stock prices are good. If they’re not, their stock prices are bad. That’s it. That’s our view. So because the economy is doing well, and we could have the lowering of interest rates, that’s cheaper money and cheaper borrowing, etc. That is good for profits, we think stocks are going to have a very good year this year. The bond market is slower than we anticipated, we thought it’d be going up already. But if the interest rates start to come down in the second half of this year, we think we could have a historic rally in bonds. So we’re anticipating that and that’s why we’re invested in bonds currently. So that’s where we are. So all is well right now and we anticipate this should be a good year barring something happening that we don’t know about. So if you don’t know about it, we can’t talk about it. So that’s where we are. I hope that all you SCWPerS are out there SCWPering your little tails off. You know, we want to be able to go around the country and we’re looking around and going look, there’s a SCWPer tail there’s another SCWPer tail, they’re everywhere. They’ve been SCWPering their tails off. So we want you to enjoy your second childhood without parental supervision. And for those of you who are not SCWPerS, our job is to get you there so that you can go have fun and joy and not worry about all this boring financial stuff. We want to do it for you. Now, please share this video with as many of your friends and family anytime you send us a friend or somebody to talk to. We are incredibly grateful. It is the biggest compliment you can give us and we’re so thankful Okay, so thanks for watching this video and we will talk soon.

Please note: transcript has been modified after the time of recording. 

Economic indicators and stock market performance cannot be predicted. Opinions expressed regarding the economy and the stock market belong solely to Ken Moraif on behalf of Retirement Planners of America and may not accurately portray actual future performance of the economy or stock market outcomes. Opinions expressed in this video is intended to be for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as investment advice for individuals who are not clients of Retirement Planners of America. All content provided is the opinion of Ken Moraif, CEO and Founder of RPOA Advisors, Inc. (d/b/a Retirement Planners of America ) (“Retirement Planners of America”, “RPOA”). ©Copyright 2023