• We had a massive jobs report this week, and it came in far stronger than expected. 
• Economists were expecting roughly 65,000 new jobscreated. 
• Instead, the economy added about 115,000 jobs.
• That tells us the jobs market remains very strong.
• One interesting dynamic right now is that we may not have a shortage of jobs — we may have a shortage of workers willing to fill them.
• The unemployment rate stayedexactly the same at 4.3%. 
• Average earnings also increased from 3.6% year over year to 3.8%.
• Higher wages are generally a good thing, but there is a catch.
• If inflation is rising faster than wages, then consumers are still losing purchasing power.
• That becomes important because the consumer drives a huge portion of our economy.
• As we’ve said many times, one of the biggest driversof the market is the Federal Reserve. 
• The Fed has two mandates:
  • Keep employment strong 
  • Keep inflation around 2% 
• Right now, the jobs side of the equation looks healthy.
• Inflation, however, is still running hotter than the Fed wants.
• Some of that inflation is likely tied to the Iran conflict, including higher gasoline prices and supply chain pressures.
• Because of that uncertainty, the Fed decided not to make any interest rate changes this week.
• In our view, that is probably a reasonable decision.
• The Fed is trying to determine how much inflation is temporary and how much may be more systemic.
• There is also political pressure building to lower interest rates.
• A new Federal Reserve Chairman could potentially push for lower rates in the future.
• But lowering rates while inflation remains elevated could create additional problems.
• For now, the Fed appears to be taking a wait-and-see approach.
• Meanwhile, the stock market continues reaching all-time highs.
• We believe there are several reasons for optimism in the economy right now.
• Jobs remain strong. 
• The Iran conflict may eventually resolve itself.
• If that happens, gasoline prices could come down.
• There is also stimulus from rebate checks tied to the “big beautifulbill.” 
• Overall, we believe the long-term outlook still appears bright.
• However, we also want to caution against becoming overly complacent.
• As we said in the title of this video: if things are rolling along too well, make sure you’re not rolling downhill.
• Stock valuations are very high right now.
• Housing activity has weakened significantly, and housing is a major part of the economy.
• Spending on hires and physical equipment has also slowed.
• Because ofthose factors, we believe there is a meaningful possibility of a market correction between now and the end of the year. 
• That does not mean you should panic or worry.
• This is exactly why we have our Invest and Protect process.
• Our job is to monitor these risks and act if conditions deteriorate.
• Your job is to enjoy your life and your retirement.
• We’ll handle theworrying so you don’t have to. 
• Our goal remains helping your money last as long as you do while you enjoy your Second Childhood Without Parental Supervision.

Transcript:

Ken Moraif 

Matt, hello everyone, and welcome to our weekly market alert video for today, which is May 8, 2026. 

Ken Moraif 

As usual, I hope this video finds you healthy, wealthy, and wise. All of you out there in Squipper Nation, I hope you are scwpering your tails off, and don’t worry about it. We’ve got a crew that goes around and cleans up all the Squipper tails everywhere, so don’t worry. If you leave them, you don’t even have to clean up after yourself. Enjoy your second childhood without parental supervision. And for those of you who are our clients, who are not retired yet, we will do everything we can to get you there. 

In this weekly market alert video, we’re going to talk about jobs, which was the big number that came out this morning, and it was massive. It was huge. It was crazy. And we’re going to talk about that. We’re going to talk about inflation and why that may be the thing that the Fed is now looking at. They have two mandates: jobs and inflation. So we’ll be talking about that, and we’ll wrap it all up with, you know, as I titled this market alert video, “If things are rolling along too well, make sure you aren’t going downhill.” So what could the downhill part be? 

So we have a ton to talk about, but before we dive into that, I’ve got to tell you that my life changed this last week, and I don’t think for the better. 

Ken Moraif 

My wife decided that she wanted a cat, okay? And I thought she was joking, so I’m like, no, we don’t need a cat at this stage of our lives. You know, we have a dog already. She’s eight years old, so we’re kind of like on the second half of that dog’s life, or less. We’re about to be free from pets and kids and everything else, and now she wants a cat. And you know what kind of cat she wants, ladies and gentlemen? A Maine Coon. 

Do you know what a Maine Coon is? A Maine Coon is a cat that is not even a cat. It’s like a dog. I’m not even kidding. These things get to be this big. And I’m like, what are you doing? So anyway, I thought she was kidding, but one thing I learned about my wife is she rarely kids around when it comes to cats. And so they actually delivered the cat this weekend, or last weekend. And so now we have a new member of the family. It’s a six-month-old Maine Coon, all black, and he’s already this big. 

And if you know kittens, they like to climb on everything, and they like to scratch everything, and they’re wild. They jump and knock everything down. Well, he’s this big, and she decided to call him Claude, and it’s spelled C-L-A-W-E-D, Claude. And the reason why is because Maine Coons have six toes. 

Ken Moraif 

Just in case that was not enough to claw everything, they have extra. So my life has changed forever, ladies and gentlemen. I’ve got a cat in my life. Oh my. 

Anyway, let’s talk about the jobs numbers. They actually came in. It was a blowout number, and the estimate was that we were going to get plus 65,000 jobs. Instead, what we got was 115,000 jobs created, so way, way better than what was estimated. And the jobs, therefore, look to be really, really strong. 

And you know, one of the things that I heard somebody say is we don’t have a lack of jobs. We have a lack of workers. We have plenty of jobs available, but apparently there aren’t a lot of workers willing to fill those jobs, which is kind of an interesting dynamic. 

The other thing that was interesting is the unemployment rate stayed exactly the same: 4.3 versus 4.3. 

Ken Moraif 

And here’s a number that’s really important, and that is the average earnings year over year went from 3.6 to 3.8. 

Ken Moraif 

So earnings went up from 3.6% to 3.8%. 

Ken Moraif 

So that’s good, right? Because they’re keeping up with inflation. But if you think that inflation went up by more than that, what it means is that the average earner did not keep up with inflation. And so that’s not a good thing when it comes to our consumers. 

So as you guys know, we’ve talked about this a lot in the past. One of the biggest drivers of the economy, of whether we have a stock market crash or whether we have prosperity, is our Federal Reserve, okay? Those guys are incredibly important. And you know the old adage is, “Don’t fight the Fed,” right? Whatever they’re doing, they’re going to win, whether it’s a good thing or a bad thing. 

And so the Fed has two mandates. One is jobs. Their job is to make sure we have plenty of jobs, unemployment is down, and the second one is that inflation is down to 2%. That’s their goal. 

Ken Moraif 

Right now, they’re failing miserably on the inflation number, but they seem to be doing well on the jobs number. So if that’s the case, they’re going to focus on the inflation number. And right now, inflation is running a little hot. 

So is it because of the war in Iran? Yeah, probably. Gas prices, supply chain issues, those are all probably contributing to the inflation. And so what the Fed decided this week was, you know what, we’re not going to do anything because we can’t tell how much of the inflationary pressure we’re seeing is coming from the Iran thing and how much of it is actually systemic. Therefore, we’re going to do nothing. 

And you know what? I think that’s a reasonable thing for them to do. They don’t know what to do. So they’re getting a lot of pressure from the President: lower rates, lower rates, lower rates. We’re going to have a new Federal Reserve Chairman, Walsh, and he probably is going to want lower rates, so we might get them. But is that a good idea in an environment where we have high inflation? Probably not. Maybe. So we’ll have to wait and see. Get your popcorn out. 

The thing, though, is that the market is reaching all-time highs left and right, and we think that will continue. The war in Iran hopefully will resolve itself. Gas prices will come down. We’ve got the rebate checks from the big, beautiful bill coming out. I mean, there’s a lot of positives for our economy: jobs, consumer spending, and so because of that, we think the future is very, very bright. 

But you know, as I said, if you’re rolling along too well, make sure you’re not rolling downhill. One of the things that we do need to be aware of is that stock prices are very, very high right now. 

Ken Moraif 

Housing is not doing very well at all, and it’s a big part of our economy. Hires and physical equipment actually went down significantly. Valuations, as I said, with stock prices are really high right now, so it is possible that we could get a pretty good correction here between now and the end of the year. 

So do you need to worry about it? Of course not. We have our Invest and Protect process there for you, so you don’t have to worry about it. Go play, have fun, enjoy your second childhood without parental supervision. Let us get the gray hair for you so that you don’t have to. But yeah, we do think that a correction is very likely, and a pretty good one probably before the end of the year. So we’ll keep you posted on that. 

But in the meantime, enjoy the time right now. Summer’s coming. I hope you guys have wonderful plans and enjoy your time, and let us, as I said, do the worrying for you so that you don’t have to. 

All right, so I hope this video found you healthy, wealthy, and wise. Make sure you like and subscribe. It really helps us out a lot, and we’ll talk soon. Retirement Planners of America, RPOA. 

Economic indicators and stock market performance cannot be predicted. Opinions expressed regarding the economy and the stock market belong solely to employees of RPOA on behalf of Retirement Planners of America and may not accurately portray actual future performance of the economy or stock market outcomes. Opinions expressed in this video is intended to be for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as investment advice for individuals who are not clients of Retirement Planners of America. All content provided is the opinion of employees of RPOA Advisors, Inc. (d/b/a Retirement Planners of America ) (“Retirement Planners of America”, “RPOA”). ©Copyright 2026