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Are We Out Of The Woods?

• We titled this week’s Market Alert: Are we out of the woods?
• The reason is the recent ceasefire and the market’s reaction to it.
• The market is betting this could be the beginning of the end of the conflict.
• But the key question is: will the ceasefire actually hold?
• Based on what we’ve already seen, there is reason to be cautious.
• A lasting resolution will likely require a political solution, not a military one.
• A military solution would be extremely difficult and resource-intensive.
• Controlling the Strait of Hormuz would require massive, ongoing commitment.
• We’re talking about:
• Roughly 100,000 troops on the ground
• Around 20% of the U.S. destroyer fleet
• Continuous air support
• That kind of effort is not a one-time action — it would have to be sustained indefinitely.
• That’s why a negotiated outcome is far more likely than a permanent military solution.
• And until that happens, uncertainty remains.
• At the same time, the market’s focus is already shifting away from the conflict.
• Just like tariffs faded from the headlines, attention is moving back to inflation.
• We just received the latest CPI and Core PCE data.
• Both came in above 3%, which is higher than the Fed’s 2% target.
• However, most of that increase was driven by gasoline prices.
• The underlying inflation data outside of energy was not significantly elevated.
• That’s an important distinction.
• If gasoline prices come back down, inflation could move lower again.
• As a result, the idea that the Fed will raise interest rates is starting to fade.
• The market is reacting positively to that possibility.
• That’s a major reason we’ve seen recent gains.
• From a portfolio standpoint, we remain in protection mode.
• But conditions are beginning to improve.
• It is starting to look like we may not need to take additional protective measures.
• In fact, we could be approaching a point where we reinvest.
• If that happens, it would be to participate in what could be a second-half rally.
• As always, we are following our Invest and Protect process.
• We will act based on our signals, not headlines or emotions.
• Our goal remains the same: protect your retirement from catastrophic losses while positioning for growth when conditions improve.
• We are monitoring everything closely so you don’t have to.
• And as always, our goal is for you to enjoy your Second Childhood Without Parental Supervision while we mind the store.


Transcript:

Ken Moraif
Hello everyone, and welcome to our market alert video for today, which is April 10, 2026 I hope this finds you healthy, wealthy and wise. And of course, if you are a client of ours, or if you’re a skipper of ours, then you are healthy, wealthy and wise. Okay, this just it comes with the territory. So I’m glad you’re with us. We have a lot to talk about today. First of all, we’re going to tell you we entitled this mark alert video, are we out of the woods? Okay? And we’re entitling that because, of course, we had the cease fire, and everybody trusts the Iranians. Once they make a cease fire, they hold to their word. They never, ever lie. They don’t do any of that. They’re trustworthy, right, wrong. So will it hold or not? I want to go into I saw this thing about what the military solution would take. So we’ve got the greatest military in the world, maybe in history, right now. And so what would it take for us to take over the Hormuz, the Strait of Hormuz, and stop all this, this, this foolishness. So I can tell you what that would entail and why maybe it’s not a good idea. And oh yeah, there was something else. What was it? Oh inflation, the CPI and the core PCE number came out, and that’s what the Fed talks about, which really is the most important thing we should talk about today. So we got a ton for you, and I hope all you skippers out there are enjoying your second childhood without parental supervision. Retirement should be your second childhood. It should be fun. You should go play, have fun. Let us get the gray hair and worry it for you. Worry about it for you, and for those of you who are not retired yet, our goal is to get you there and turn you into a skipper as well. Little housekeeping before we get going, I want to make sure you all sign up for the town hall we’re going to have on next Monday the 13th. If you haven’t signed up for it already, you should. We’re going to be talking about or answering your questions rather about our new and improved invest and protect process 2.0 and we’re going to talk about the sanity checks we’re using now, and how we use those and answer your questions. It’s going to be a lively and fun event, and we hope that you will attend, so make sure you sign up for that. So before we get started, you know, as usual, I know that. You know this is all about finances, and our appointed task is to talk about all of that. And of course, we should, but I just want to share. I want to make a deviation this week, and only this week, okay, because it was Easter weekend last weekend, and we had the family over, and I’m already seeing, you know, the personalities of our grandchildren, they’re already starting. It’s amazing. You know, we have a four year old. I had a one year old and I had a nine month old, and with the first one, I have to be honest, I did all I saw in him was a little blob with no personality that stole my wife from me. That’s what happened. All of a sudden, my wife didn’t even know I existed, and this blob that does nothing was had taken her away from me. Well, as it turns out, I didn’t understand until my second grandchild, how different these babies are, even when they’re tiny. And so it’s really funny and interesting to watch that. And you know, I was watching them, and you know how frustrating it must be to be a baby. I mean, think about it. You want to talk, but you can’t. You have no language. So you’re like, sitting in this body, and you’re trying to tell people stuff, and nobody’s listening to it. So you’re like, wow, that’s your only way of communicating. So anyhow, yeah, so let’s talk about the cease fire, and will it hold? So everybody right now, you know, the market is betting, right? We saw the big up day that this Cease fire. You know, it’s the beginning of the end of all of this. And really, the only way this whole thing is going to come to conclusion is with a political solution, they’re going to have to negotiate it out. A military solution is very, very difficult, and so it’s going to need to be that. So let me go over. I was listening to a military expert on what it would take for us to control the Strait of Hormuz, okay, which is where all the oil is flowing through.

Ken Moraif
And so first of all, we would need about 100,000 troops, okay, boots on the ground all along the coastline. And the reason why is because the Strait of Hormuz, which is the strait where the oil flows through, it’s only about two miles wide, and so it’s very difficult to defend that, because if a missile or a drone or a submarine drone comes at you, you’ve got seconds to react to it, and our defenses are not that fast, you know, we can catch a missile, but it’s got to be coming so you can shoot it. But if it’s you know, if it’s that close, you can’t react to it fast enough. So we would have to push everybody back far enough from the coastline and control that so that they can’t do that so they’re far enough away. So that would require 100,000 boots on the ground. Number two, we would have to have 10 destroyers in in the trader Hormuz to be able to control. Traffic to be the cops, and that’s 20% of our entire destroyer fleet. So we’re going to devote all of that to that. And then the other thing is, you got to have air power to help out with that, right? You got to bomb everything that’s moving to make sure that they don’t encroach. So this would be a we would it would be such a massive endeavor, we could do it, but then you got to do it for the rest of your life. I mean, you can’t just do it once and stop so this is going to become like, are we going to do that forever? The answer is no. So this has to be a political solution. They have to come to terms. And when will that happen? We don’t know. And do we trust the Iranians? Heck no. We’ve already seen the moment they said that we have a cease fire. They started launching missiles at everybody, so it ain’t over yet. Okay, it’s on its way, maybe to being over, but it ain’t over yet. So don’t get cocky. Kid. Remember that drive? Do you remember that? Who said that? Who said, No, not Clint Eastwood, no, Luke. It was Han Solo when Luke Skywalker was shooting at everybody, and he was like, I hit him. I hit him. And Han Solo says, Don’t get cocky, kid, Harrison Ford, yeah, Harrison Ford said that. It was Han Solo. It wasn’t Harrison Ford, anyhow. So that’s kind of that, that thing. And so the question is, you know, the big thing though, that everybody’s looking through right now, the war seems to kind of be falling to the wayside. It’s weird, just like tariffs. Is anybody talking about tariffs anymore? So right now, it looks like the focus is again becoming inflation. So let’s look at that. We just got the CPI and the core PCE. So that the core PCE is the one that the Fed really looks like it looks at, and the CPI is the inflation that shows the consumer prices, which they look at also, but they spend more of the time on the core, which is the the consumer price index, but you take out the core parts of it, and both of those came in hot. They came in at over 3% Their goal is to be two they’re all up. But if you look at what happened, it is mostly because of gasoline prices. So that’s really what drove it. So therefore, if this thing resolves itself, and gasoline prices come down the rest of the core, and those things were not materially inflated, it was basically just gasoline that did it. And therefore we could see inflation come back down to a level that’s more friendly. And so this notion that the Fed is going to raise interest rates is kind of coming off the table. Then the market is happy about that, and that’s why we see the gains that we have seen. So as usual, ladies and gentlemen, you know, we have our invest and protect process ready if we have to take additional protective measures to protect your retirement from catastrophic losses. But right now it’s starting to look like maybe we won’t have to. And in fact, it may be that we will be investing back in here soon to take advantage of what we think would be a second half of the year rally. So right now, things are looking up. It’s looking better. And so I want to remind you once again, sign up for the town hall. It’s this coming Monday the 13th, and we’re going to have your question and answers. There’s a video you need to watch first, so you’re kind of educated about what questions you want to ask. And then it’s going to be questions that you can ask, and we’ll be happy to answer as many of those as we can. So I hope this, as I said, this, finds you healthy, wealthy and wise, and I hope that all is coming up roses for you, and belated Happy Easter for those of you who celebrated that I hope you had a great time with your family, and we’ll talk soon.

Please note: transcript has been modified after the time of recording. 

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