• The big headline this morning is that Kevin Warsh is potentially going to be the new Federal Reserve Chairman.
• The market had very little reaction to the news, which suggests investors are comfortable with the pick.
• Kevin Warsh has a strong reputation on Wall Street and was highly respected during the financial crisis.
• He’s historically known as an inflation hawk, which means the market is wondering whether he’ll actually lower rates the way President Trump would like.
• While the Fed Chairman is very influential, it’s still a committee of 12 people who vote on interest rate decisions.
• Even if Warsh wants lower rates, he still has to convince the other members of the Fed to go along with him.
• History shows that new Fed Chairs often behave differently once they’re in the seat than when they were on the outside.
• The market will likely test the next Fed Chair at some point to see how he responds under pressure.
• There’s also growing drama surrounding current Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
• The Department of Justice is reportedly investigating mismanagement tied to the Fed’s billion-dollar building project.
• It appears less about the building itself and more about putting pressure on Powell to step down early.
• With constant political pressure and scrutiny, Powell may decide it’s simply not worth staying.
• At the same time, Powell has hinted he may remain on the Fed even after his term as Chairman ends.
• That would be highly unusual and could create even more tension inside the Federal Reserve.
• There’s also talk that other senior Fed officials could leave alongside Powell.
• If that happens, President Trump could end up appointing multiple new Fed members, reshaping the committee.
• All of this sets the stage for months of political drama, hearings, and market speculation.
• On the economic side, jobs data, inflation, and interest rate expectations all came in largely as expected.
• There were no big surprises that would cause us to make any portfolio changes at this time.
• Markets have been relatively calm, reflecting that most of the recent data was already priced in.
• Now it’s time for the Fearless Forecast for 2026.
• One big factor is the “Big Beautiful Bill,” which is expected to increase the average tax refund from about $2,500 last year to roughly $3,500 this year.
• That’s about $1,000 more in consumers’ pockets, which is very stimulative for spending and the economy.
• Historically, when people receive extra money like this, it tends to flow into consumption rather than paying down debt.
• More spending generally supports corporate profits and stock prices, especially in the first half of the year.
• Another potential tailwind is lower interest rates if the new Fed leadership moves in that direction later this year.
• Lower rates would reduce borrowing costs and further stimulate economic activity.
• Businesses are also benefiting from increased capital expenditures tied to new incentives in the Big Beautiful Bill.
• More spending on plants, equipment, and hiring adds another layer of economic support.
• Together, consumer spending, easier monetary policy, and business investment form a powerful growth backdrop.
• We also looked at historical data on how the market behaves early in the year.
• Going back many decades, when the first five trading days of the year are positive, the odds strongly favor the market finishing higher.
• Even a small gain in those first five days significantly increases the likelihood of a positive year.
• This year’s first five trading days were positive, adding another supportive data point.
• January itself was also a strong month, which historically bodes well for the rest of the year.
• Taking all of this together leads to this year’s Fearless Forecast.
• We expect the S&P 500 to reach approximately 7,500 at some point during 2026.
• That represents roughly a double-digit gain from current levels.
• While four straight years of double-digit returns would be rare, it has happened before in market history.
• The Fearless Forecast refers to the high point the market could reach during the year, not necessarily where it finishes.
• Last year’s Fearless Forecast was reached and even surpassed.
• With strong economic tailwinds and supportive historical trends, we believe 2026 has the potential for another strong market year.
• Between Fed leadership changes, political drama, and economic catalysts, there’s plenty to watch in the months ahead.
• As always, we’ll continue tracking it all for you and keeping you informed along the way.

Transcript:

Ken Moraif
Hello everybody, and welcome back to the our Weekly Market Alert video, where we have more fun than a human being should be allowed to have when talking about all this boring financial stuff. And oh my gosh, you know, I went to the Australian Open, the tennis thing in Australia, and I come back and look at this. There’s like 8000 things to talk about. It’s like, Man, can I not just come back to a relaxed situation? No, I cannot. We have so much to talk about. I’m glad you are with us. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. So let me go over with you what we’re going to talk about on this our weekly excursion into the land of finance and what’s happening in the economy. The big story is this morning, Kevin Warsh is potentially, probably most likely, going to be our new Fed chairman. So we’re going to talk about the drama at the Federal Reserve. Oh my gosh, there’s so much going on. It could be a reality show. I’m not kidding you. But then, of course, we’re going to talk about the jobs numbers that came in. We’re going to talk about ppi, the inflation numbers that came in. Let’s see what else we have on the docket. And, oh yeah, by the way, we’re going to have our fearless forecast, which is why I have my my crystal ball here. And one of the things about my crystal ball is that it doesn’t have an on button, so I haven’t figured out how to turn it on yet, but it’s been pretty accurate for us. You know, as I look back over the I think I’ve done, we’ve done maybe 15 fearless forecasts over the maybe more. And of those, I think only three have been incorrect, including the one last year was correct. We hit that So, as I always say, you don’t listen to our fearless forecast at your own peril. So we have just a big docket of stuff to do. So I want to bring on our Chief Investment Officer, Jordan Roach, to join the conversation. So I don’t like take up the whole time. Jordan, how you

Jordan Roach
doing? You’re a role today? Yeah.

Ken Moraif
I love it this. I love doing this, so it’s good to see you. Have you been? How’s it been without me? I mean, it’s got it been

Jordan Roach
weird, terrible, right? Horrible, right? I like this better.

Ken Moraif
Yeah, it must have been awful for you. I got to tell you a quick story at the Australian Open So, and I’m going to give a free plug to the people that did the trip that I went on. It’s called tennis ventures, okay? And what they do is they organize these trips to the Grand Slam events like Wimbledon, the Australian Open et cetera. Fantastic job. Chadwick is a guy who runs that tell him, Ken sent you. It’ll make me, I’ll be happy that he knows it was me. But anyway, he has amazing access to stuff really crazy. And so what he did was, when we went to the Aussie, he gave us these, these badges, right? Employee badges. So you’re walking around the Aussie and you’re an employee. So guess what? You have access to everything. So we were going to the back courts, you know, where the where the players were practicing where the general audience is not allowed to we even hit on those courts right next to them. We had, we were, we were, we went into this club called the crystal Club, which is like only the play. It’s like super exclusive. You know, nobody else can go in there. I had breakfast every day for four days, and I’m not kidding. Roger Federer was sitting this far away from me, I guess sway tech and sevalenka. I mean, they were all coming and going, and they were sitting there talking to their coaches. The only rule that Chadwick had was, Do not go over that, you know, and ask for a selfie or, you know, whatever. You don’t want to bother them. But still, I’m sitting right there. Roger Federer is right there. He’s a very cool guy all dressed in black. He’s got his Rolex. But anyway, with the employee badges, there’s a plus and a minus. So I’m walking around with my wife. It’s a little warm, as you may have heard over there. And when you walk around the grounds, there’s this one place where they have like the Aperol Spritz. Okay, have you ever had an Aperol Spritz? It’s a big orange refreshing drink, right? So does the Aperol Spritz stand, right, or the whatever? So you go, there. You get in line, so you get up to the counter, and I go, two Aperol spritzes, please for my wife and me. And the lady goes, I’m sorry, but I can’t give that to you. And I’m like, why not? Because you’re wearing an employee badge, and employees are not allowed to drink alcohol. And I’m like, but I’m not an employee. And she goes, Oh yeah, you are. You got the badge, all right, I’m gonna take it off now. I’m not employed, sir, you can’t just take off the badge and not become an employee. So we have to, like, leave, take the badges, put them in our pockets, and go back to a different line and, like, two apparel spread. Was she watching you come? No. She Well, yeah. But anyway, she let it, she let it go. So we ended up with two apparels, actually more than that, but yeah, it was funny. There was a plus and a minus to have in the employee badge. So we had some fun. Anyway, it’s good to be back. So let’s, let’s, we’re, I’m going to save the the grand finale for today, and that’s going to be the our fearless forecast for. This year. Okay, so I’m going to keep everybody in suspense. Sorry, everybody, but you know, that’s how you do it. You tease, you keep people in tune. So let’s talk about the news that happened. Kind of boring, really to me, because really nothing, nothing of any consequence. Tell us about what happened with jobs, the interest rates, the Fed did nothing with and inflation that came everything,

Jordan Roach
either in line or expected, right? Just a lot of ho hum, yeah, a lot of nothingness. Markets really not moving much, anticipating. Nothing kind of came in line expectations. So, yeah, nothing from an economic side to really, give anybody any surprise, anything to think through, really.

Ken Moraif
So you’re not making any you’re not looking at any portfolio changes. You’re not looking at doing anything dramatic right now based

Jordan Roach
on what’s just come out in the last couple of weeks, certainly this week. Yeah, absolutely not.

Ken Moraif
So, okay, we knocked that one out. That was fast. Okay, so let’s talk about this. So we got this morning President Trump x, what’s, what’s the verb for that? Is it tweeted? Is it still you tweet on x?

Jordan Roach
Can’t say x is weird, then you ex tweeted, is what I tweeted?

Ken Moraif
Okay, whatever he did, he put it on, or maybe put it on truth social, I don’t know. Wherever he did it, he said that he’s like, all in for Kevin Warsh, yes. And so no reaction at all from the market on that,

Jordan Roach
not really. I mean, you had markets move slightly down, but basically no reaction. You had yields, long yields move slightly up, but largely nothing.

Ken Moraif
I mean, the guy has a fantastic reputation, yes, right. I mean, in the credit crisis, granted, that was like, you know, 100,000 years ago, but during the credit crisis, he was on point. He was right about pretty much everything back then. He was the one that was driving a lot of stuff that was happening. He’s very well respected on Wall Street. Everybody thinks the guy’s like on it seems to be an independent guy. So even though he’s going to be a Trump guy, it appears that he’s always talked about the independence of the Fed, which is, like the big concern.

Jordan Roach
Yeah, I think it’s, I think it’s very interesting pick, you know, that used the thing the market’s wrestling with him right now is he is historically known as we call, like an inflation hawk. So back in the great financial crisis, you know, when everything’s like, pro growth, accommodative money, you know, monetary supply, he was actually very early to say we got to worry about that inflation side of the equation too, and wanted to kind of rein that in. So it’s now the market with is, Is he really going to do what Trump probably hopes he’s going to do, or is he’s going to keep pointing at inflation and not worry so much about pro growth, pro labor, all those things? Yeah.

Ken Moraif
And you know, the Federal Reserve Chairman is maybe the most influential member of the committee, but it is a committee. It’s 12 people, yeah, vote. It’s a committee. So the Federal Reserve Chairman, for the most part, is a very influential politician, right? That’s right. His job if he believes that interest rates should be lower, you know, which is what he does, right? That’s why Trump likes him, yes, but he’s got to convince 11 other people that that’s the way to go, right? That’s exactly so. If he’s the only one that thinks so, even though he’s a chairman, they ain’t going that way.

Jordan Roach
That’s right. So he’s a professional politician, a salesman, if you will. It’s got to move 11 other people voting people to get online with whatever he wants to do, and it’s got to be majority, yeah.

Ken Moraif
And also, you know, when you become, when you’re a new leader in a new position, it’s really easy to sit there from the outside and, you know, throw stones, sure. And then all of a sudden, you know, now you’re in the seat in the limelight. And they bring you, you know, they used to be with the CIA, when you have a new president, they’d bring you the binder, and the CIA would say, Okay, Mr. President, I know you ran on all this stuff, but let me show you exactly what’s going on behind the scenes. And the President goes, Oh, okay, looks a little different. So all of a sudden, you know, every Chairman of the Federal Reserve, new chairman, and even, I guess, not new gets tested big time by something. And you know what you expect them to do? Because that’s what they’ve done in the past. May not be what they do when they’re in office, per se,

Jordan Roach
absolutely agree. I would honestly expect either the stock, the bond, or maybe both, to whoever the next chair is, the market will test that chair, throw them something,

Ken Moraif
and we may be surprised, absolutely, he may come out and say, No, we’re not going to lower interest rates, absolutely. And then Trump will be on him too. Because, remember, Trump is the guy who put Powell in, turned on him, and literally, six months after he put him in, started saying that this guy’s incompetent. We need to get rid of him. So we’ll see what happens with that. You know, I think with President Trump, there’s literally nothing that happens without like a tornado around it, you know. I mean, even if you agree with him, his methodology is to create so much chaos, it’s really remarkable how capable he is at doing that. And so, you know, this is kind of the same thing, but the pick. Kevin Warsh, right now, he’s got credentials. He’s got credibility. The market likes it. I think,

Jordan Roach
I think, you know, personally, I think it’s a good pick, because I think he can play both sides. I think he can talk to business leaders, economic leaders. I think he can talk to, you know, congressional leaders. I think President, he knows both sides. He’s seen both sides. So if there’s anybody who is probably has the credentials to navigate this time, I would say he’s a good pick.

Ken Moraif
Okay, all right, so Kevin Warsh looks like the the heir apparent to the job. So now let’s go into the drama. Okay, because this is, this is insane. So There is currently an investigation by the Department of Justice on mismanagement of funds by Chairman Powell on the that, that billion dollar building that Did you see the picture that when Trump walked around the building with the hard hat, and he goes, this, this thing is a billion dollars over budget. And, you know, there’s, you know, Jeromy Powell going well, you know, I don’t know how you count a billion dollars over budget. Is it based on the previous cost or the new cost? You know, kind of put him on the spot. But is, I don’t think it’s real. I think it’s just to put more pressure on Powell to say, You know what, I don’t need this crap. I’m out of here 100%

Jordan Roach
I totally agree with that. I don’t know if anything’s to come with that. I don’t know the point of it, but I think it’s just pressuring, and at some point, I mean, if you’re Powell, do you not have some point to say I’m ready to be done, like, I want may to be here, just to get done with it?

Ken Moraif
Well, think about it. I don’t what it Powell actually told everybody how much he makes. Oh, it’s and it’s like, you know, he could make that in one speaking engagement, like for a whole year of enduring Trump beating up on him and all the crap, and then also he’s got, you know, this Department of Justice investigation on top of it. And guess what? I could make in one speech as much money as a year of this. So I think, you know, in my opinion, anyway, it looks to me like it’s just Trump putting pressure on him to say bye bye, to

Jordan Roach
say bye bye, or or sway everybody in the next five months, you’re in the seat to start pulling rates back down.

Ken Moraif
And then, you know, the other thing, you know, as I, if I put myself in Chairman Powell’s seat, if I, if I’m putting on his MCAS or, you know, Mark a mile, and is it moccasins or mcassons? I like to say mcassons Anyway. So he’s walking a mile in his mcassens. If I’m Powell, I’m thinking about my legacy, right? I’ve been the chairman of the Federal Reserve. This is a historic person, and I missed on inflation, right? I started way too late. Remember the transitory, the whole all through 2021 yeah, this inflation is transitory. Will be gone in six months, right? Ramp and ramp. So he wants to save his, his legacy. I would think so. I think right now, how do you save your legacy? Well, you got to be, you can’t, you can’t have a legacy of being late. You know, as Trump has branded him, you know, too late, Powell, you don’t want to have a legacy if you got fired. So I think maybe his legacy is, you know, Trump is trying to take over the Federal Reserve, and I’m going to get in the way of that by staying. That would be something, wouldn’t it. Have you heard this in his speech, he said he might stay, yeah, well, I

Jordan Roach
think he’s almost mirroring kind of the that goes that even Trump says about running for a third term, right?

Ken Moraif
Mirrors those two, oh, my goodness, yeah. Can you imagine, if he stayed, what that would cause in terms of the dynamic of what’s going on inside the Federal Reserve, if he becomes one of the 11, he’s not the chairman, but that there’s no chance he’s I mean, it’s never happened before, even though he could. I mean, it’s

Jordan Roach
funny in some ways. It’s kind of strangely funny. There’s no

Ken Moraif
chance I just find all of this like

Jordan Roach
drama is yes, it’s yeah, it’s a reality show.

Ken Moraif
So anyway, yeah, so it looks like we’re gonna see a new Federal Reserve Chair. He’s young. He’s 55 he’s got the credentials. He’s got Wall Street behind him. Most likely he’s going to be hawkish, meaning he’s going to be wanting to reduce interest rates. And from the speeches that he’s given, it sounds like he’s talking about how interest rates could be a lot lower than they are because of the productivity gains we’re getting from Ai.

Jordan Roach
Yeah, that was something he was I think, why Trump maybe favors him is that he was, you know, writing open op eds, basically saying that we need a whole regime change here, because growth is going to be good despite whatever labor concerns are coming in there. You know, market should be stabilized. He was pretty early in signaling all that. And so I think it’s, I

Ken Moraif
mean, do you agree with that? Do you think that the productivity gains from AI are going to be able to absorb the inflationary effect, because the productivity of AI drops inflation, right? It makes inflation lower, the cost of stuff goes down. And so you could lower interest rates, because that is inflationary at the same time. And they could. Said each other, yeah, I

Jordan Roach
think that’s probably true, but I think the issue you could get into is a a gridlocked labor

Ken Moraif
market effectively. Oh, I like that. Was that? Mean, a gridlocked labor market?

Jordan Roach
Well, we’re not seeing, you know, the productivity can help companies not necessarily have to fire too many people, because they can maintain profitability. Don’t have to just go through cost cutting, but at the same time, with all the geopolitical risk and uncertainty and productivity, it gains they’re getting from not needing from Ai, they don’t need to hire new people, right? So job openings get squashed, yeah? And so you just have the labor market kind of

Ken Moraif
gridlock to stay good luck, yeah, yeah, yeah. And in fact, that’s what’s been the case, right? The jobs numbers we got this week kind of reflect that. The other thing that is dramatic is the potential that not only does Powell leave, but the vice chair also leaves, because he’s like, you know, very loyal to Powell. And then you could see Michael Barr leave as well. You could have two more people leave the Fed, you know, because of this. And so now President Trump will actually appoint three people to the Fed. Very interesting. And boy, is that going to create some drama as well. You’re going to have Senate hearings, and you’re going to have all the theatrics that go with that, man, I’m going to get my popcorn. This is just going to be something else be good.

Jordan Roach
We’re going to plenty to talk through, kind of going through, all the way through May and June, absolutely.

Ken Moraif
Oh my, yeah. And it all ends in May, because that’s when Powell’s thing. Well, it doesn’t end in May, I suppose. Well, yeah, I would, because they want to get everybody in place, I would think. But anyway, Powell’s term ends in May. So it’s going to be an interesting three months here, or four months as this goes on, absolutely, oh my.

Jordan Roach
We hadn’t had a digest since again, 2017 when Powell actually came in.

Ken Moraif
Oh, man. So you know, this is, like, one of those things where the general public probably thinks, you know, this is really boring stuff, but for us, oh man, this is, this is Theater. This is like, fun. That’s right, okay. So let’s talk about the, the fearless forecast for this year. All right, so I got my even

Jordan Roach
talked through this. We really talked through this.

Ken Moraif
So let me get my crystal ball here, front and center. Alex, are you getting the crystal ball? Can you see it? Okay, so here’s the crystal ball. So I’m gonna look into it. I’m trying to find that on switch. And it’s not here. It’s like, how do you turn this thing on? Dang it. I’ve had it for years, and it’s got no on switch anyway. So let’s look at the components of what the future holds right. So we got the big, beautiful bill right, and tax refunds are coming. And the average tax refund last year was $2,500 and this year they’re anticipating $3,500 so $1,000 more, yep, right? It’s like a 50% increase in tax refunds. Big deal. Very stimulative, right? So what do you think about how that’s going to affect the consumption, stock market, et cetera? Well, I mean,

Jordan Roach
there are a number of effects of this. You know, similar thing coming out of covid, right, where it was everybody, you know, everybody was getting, you know, stimulated checks back through. And you saw markets rally for number of reasons. So if you just take that as a parallel, you know, dollars back in, what are people going to do with their dollars? They’re probably not paying down debt with those $1,000 they’re probably spending it, I would imagine.

Ken Moraif
So that’s actually what I wish we would do with the tariffs, you know, the tariff revenue. I wish every dollar of that would go straight into paying down the debt. But I doubt that’s going to happen, because politically, it’s just too seductive. What about that? Yeah, there’s, Where’s, where’s the where’s the sizzle, right? Stuff instead, let’s give people freebie goodies, you know, and that. Anyway, Sorry, I interrupted. So, yes, 1000 bucks more is a lot able to spend on a total

Jordan Roach
Yeah, you spread that across the country and say, what is the buying power of that? It is significant. Yeah.

Ken Moraif
So that bodes well for profits, bodes well for stock prices. So the first half of the year that should be get a big boost.

Jordan Roach
I think that is supportive of continued growth. Yes, okay, and

Ken Moraif
then Warsh comes in, right? He’ll be in by June, maybe, and or into May. And now what happens is, he says, Okay, we’re going to lower interest rates in their next meeting. Market loves that cost of stuff goes down, stimulative for the second half of the year.

Jordan Roach
I would broadly agree that if that happens, I think that’s exactly right. I think if we, if the market sees rates being lowered, and I think they want that to some degree, I think that again, will support market upside.

Ken Moraif
So we got two powerful consumer right? Is going to get 1000 bucks more, big, beautiful bill, monetary policy. Monetary policy is going to be friendly for buying stuff with lower interest rates. Let’s see what else could happen from that businesses. They’re getting all kinds of CapEx, capital expenditure Bennies from the plant, from the big, beautiful bill, the triple B, and that’s going to get them to you. Capex is capital expenditures, right? Building new plants and, you know, hiring new people, etc, yes, so that’s stimulative as well. So, I mean, it looks,

Jordan Roach
looks, that’s a three legged stool that would broadly say there’s some reasons to expect continued growth, right? You could see that happening.

Ken Moraif
Okay, all right, so it’s time to have a drum roll. Can you put in a drum roll here? All right, so we come to drum roll, please. The fearless forecast for 2026 and you know the beauty of this is that I’m giving you the fearless forecast. What is today? January 30. I got a whole month little bit help. I’ve got 11 months to look at, not a whole 12, so I’m getting away with, with, with that. And there is an old expression which you alluded to in, I forget which one I watched, every one of the ones you did without me. And by the way, you did a great job. And you alluded to, you know, as goes January, so goes the year. And that’s a very real statistic. Tell us about that a little bit.

Jordan Roach
Yeah, it’s really interesting. You know, you would, you would look back and say, Okay, what are the is there anything that happened early in the year that helped me understand what could happen the rest of the year? And so we went back through the data, and it basically looks at actually just like the first five trading days. I mean, just the first blip of what is the market

Ken Moraif
going to do? So it’s not even just January, it’s the first five trading days. Five trading days, okay, right?

Jordan Roach
It’s money’s back on, right? Fund managers putting money to work. Everyone’s ready to go. And it basically says, if the first five days are just positive, they don’t be up 10% or crazy positive. The likelihood the market is hired by the end of the year is overwhelming, okay?

Ken Moraif
And the first five days, how positive were they

Jordan Roach
we were, I mean, barely up, right? Because it was wild, it was wild, but we were up half a percent to 1% depending if you’re looking at

Ken Moraif
so barely up, but up, up, up Absolutely. And that’s the point, isn’t it has to be up like a lot, just if it’s no.

Jordan Roach
I mean, even flat actually signifies like, the likelihood that we’re higher later is pretty high.

Ken Moraif
Okay, so that’s new to me. I’ve always looked at, you know, January as a month, but January as a month was a good month, right? As one of the better January’s we’ve had. So that bodes very strongly for 2026 so in case you haven’t noticed, ladies and gentlemen, I’m still teasing you on the fearless forecast. All right, here it is. Drum roll again. Are we ready for the drum roll? All right, here we go. So based on all of those things, we got a new Fed chairman, lowering interest rates. We got the big, beautiful bill, tax refunds. We got cap ex going on. We got all these things that are swirling around that are in a positive direction. We’re going to go with the s and p5 100 index at 7500 by the end of this year. Okay, so double digits. Yep, yep, double digits. And, you know, as I look back over history, and I keep track of this, but I didn’t bring it with me, you know, I wish I had. But as I look back over history, going back all the way to 2000 you know, like 25 years, 26 now, I guess. Well, no, it’s, is it 26 Yeah, if you count 2000 it’s 26 years. So over those 26 years, I think we’ve done a fearless forecast all but five years. Maybe I kind of got away from it. I don’t know why. You know, you know, you kind of chew this flavor out of the gum and then you don’t like it anymore. But, yeah, but in those times, I think only three times did we miss so, like I said, like I always say, you know, if you don’t listen to our fearless forecast, you do it at your own peril. So now, when I give the fearless forecast of 7500 on the S and P, okay, the Dow, you know it’s kind of most people are more familiar with that, but this is about a 10% so go to the Dow, figure out you can see about a 10% gain on the Dow as well. But the reason why I like the S and P is because it’s a broader index to look at. It’s the one that we look at right in terms of how we make decisions, etc. So 7500 on the Dow. And this is you gave me pushback, because you’re like, wait a second, Ken, this would be, what did you say?

Jordan Roach
This would be, if that plays out? Yeah, the fourth year in a row of double digit return for s, p, fourth

Ken Moraif
year in a row. And this has never happened, ever.

Jordan Roach
No, it has. So just statistics, yes, been 11 times in history where the markets up back to back double digits. There’s only been two periods of four years strung together with back to back, and that was 50 to 54 and I think 95 to 98 so it has happened, but it’s not a frequent occurrence.

Ken Moraif
Well, Jordan, that is why it is called the fearless forecast. I like it. You’re out there. This could be the cowardly, the cowardly forecast, where I could throw, you know, like 4% on there and just say, and then, you know, the chances are I’d be right. But no, this is a 10% or so, 7500 on the s, p. Now, when I, when I say that, what I mean is, is that. That the market will hit that number. The S and P will hit that number during the course of this year. It doesn’t mean it will end there. Okay, okay. So it could hit that in July and then be lower than that at the end of the year. So this is the high point for the year, is what I’m talking about. Okay, okay. And for those of you who saw our fearless forecast last year, we hit it, but it went beyond that. So I don’t know if you want to count that as a miss or not. I kind of do, because, you know, it was lower than where it ended. What I you know, was not the high point for the year, and that’s my self judgment. But we did hit last year’s fearless forecast, and at the beginning of the year, people were like, What are you talking about? You know, like you just said, the statistics are totally against that. So there you have it. Ladies and gentlemen, the fearless forecast, the drama at the Fed, boy, is that fun? You’ve got it. You got to watch it. You got to get your popcorn. I know it’s, it’s, it’s, but it’s not financial. This is all politics. It’s very interesting. It’s like a reality show. So I hope you enjoyed this as much as we enjoyed making it for you. I hope you had more fun than a human being should be allowed to have when talking about all this boring financial stuff, make sure you like and subscribe to this. It helps us tremendously. You have no idea. Thank you if you have already, and if you haven’t, please do I don’t know why you’re not. How could, how could you ever not want this to be downloaded to your device every single time automatically. So thanks for watching, and we’ll talk soon.

Please note: transcript has been modified after the time of recording. 

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