• We finally received the long-delayed jobs report after the government shutdown, and it came in far stronger than expected. That tells us the economy continues to show resilience. This is good news for investors like you.

• Even though job creation was strong, unemployment ticked up to 4.4%. With 4.5% being a critical threshold, we’re watching this carefully on your behalf so you don’t have to worry about every headline.

• We believe unemployment may be becoming a less reliable measure as technology and AI shift how work is done. That’s why we focus on broader trends rather than reacting to any single datapoint.

• Walmart delivered strong earnings and guidance, which tells us consumers are still spending and feeling confident. When both jobs and consumers look healthy, that tends to support markets in the near term.

• Nvidia also reported strong demand and forward guidance, reinforcing that the AI boom continues gaining momentum. This remains one of the most important forces driving today’s markets.

• At the same time, history reminds us that every major build-out from railroads to dot-com eventually runs into a slowdown. We are officially on “AI bubble watch,” monitoring these developments daily to protect your life savings.

• This is exactly where our Invest and Protect Strategy shines. It keeps us riding the growth trend while preparing to act quickly if danger appears.

• Our goal, always, is to make your money last as long as you do. That means never reacting too early, never reacting emotionally, and always following the data.

• Remember Alan Greenspan’s “irrational exuberance” warning a year before the tech bubble burst? That’s a perfect example of why acting too early can be just as harmful as acting too late.

• Tech now makes up about 40% of the market. That concentration is something we’re monitoring closely, and you can rest assured we’ll take action when our indicators show real risk not before.

• As always, we want you to go live your Second Childhood Without Parental Supervision. We’ll handle the worrying, the monitoring, and the decision-making so you can have more fun than a human being should be allowed to have.

Transcript:

Ken Moraif
Hello everyone, and welcome to our Market Alert Video for today, which is November 21, 2025 I hope this video finds you healthy, wealthy and wise, and as you can see, we are back in the studio, which is really fun for me. I love being here, and we’re going to have more fun than a human being should be allowed to have when talking about all of this boring financial stuff as usual. And so this week, we have a lot to talk about. For example, we finally, after the government shutdown and everything that went on, we finally got the jobs numbers, and they came in unexpectedly. It was a huge surprise, and we’ll go into that the unemployment rate however. Well, I guess I gave away the surprise, but the unemployment rate was not so good, so we’ll talk about that as well. What does that mean for our investments, for our interest rates and all of that? And then the icing on the cake was that NVIDIA came out and said, Man, we are sold out. We cannot keep up with the demand, and the AI bubble continues to inflate, and so we will talk about that as well as we take our weekly excursion into the land of retirement planning. So I’m glad you’re with us. Thank you for watching. So let me bring Jordan Roach, our Chief Investment Officer into the conversation, and Jordan, it’s good to see you here in the studio again, together back is great. It’s a better feel. It is much better. I love it. You know, being on, being on that, on my on my computer and all that, I know. That’s the thing right now, right? In fact, what I should have been doing is sitting in my car. Have you noticed that all these people that do these tick tocks. They’re all sitting in their car, they’re holding their phone, and they’re sitting in their car. Some of them are even driving while they’re doing this, which I think not very safe, but be that as it may, we’re here in the studio. Everything’s steady. We’re okay. How are you?

Jordan Roach
We’re doing pretty well, all things considered, I think pretty well.

Ken Moraif
Yeah, your family’s all well.

Jordan Roach
Family is, well, a little break in the sports chaos, because we’re getting to Thanksgiving, which is lovely, and then right into next week, which is big we because for my wife, she’s a milestone on birthdays next week, so that’s gonna be good. Is

Ken Moraif
that right? Yeah, Faye and I, my wife and me, got we got orphaned by our own kids. It’s tough one. Yeah, Thanksgiving is with all the other in laws, so we have no nobody come into our house for Thanksgiving. First time ever, that’s gonna be odd. I’m not sad about that. Do I look sad right now? I’m not sad about I’m not sad. So we’re gonna celebrate with other parents who have been abandoned by their kids, common ground, joint sadness. But the good news is we win on Christmas, because all three of the girls and all the grandchildren are coming for Christmas. That’s the big one, and that’s the one. So I’m okay with thanksgiving. It’s Christmas that I want. So anyway, so let’s talk about the big number that came out, which is the jobs number, right? So it came out at 119,000 the expectation was jobs are going to be 50,000 in September, boom, twice as much. Jobs are fantastic, right? That’s great

Jordan Roach
news. We will have a weak labor market. There we go. We’re off and running again, yes,

Ken Moraif
so therefore the Fed should not lower interest rates, despite the protestations of our president, because jobs are plentiful and we don’t need to cut rates.

Jordan Roach
People back on the payrolls ready to go. Looks like labor market is is it’s finding its ground. So that’s right, fed. Just ease up then maybe.

Ken Moraif
But not so fast. There’s a little bit of a There’s a fly in the ointment, and that is the unemployment rate actually went up to 4.4% and apparently 4.4 is okay, but 4.5 is hair on fire. Freak out time. Yeah,

Jordan Roach
it’s interesting. I mean, I think for us, you know, looking back through what’s a better indicator, you know, broad jobs is probably not as indicative as actual unemployment, right? I think that’s more telling. I would say yes, right now the market is going to be very much watching now that figure, because 4.5 is not like absolute threshold. We just crater at that point. But oftentimes that’s where we might see a new trend where, oh, where unemployment from there, it’s more likely to continue to rise than to stay there or come back down.

Ken Moraif
Yeah. And you know, the thing that we’ve said on this show forever, for, I don’t know, going back to 1995 or 30 years, oh my gosh, three decades, is that the stock market is not jobs, right? And so let’s talk about Walmart. But before we do that, because they came out with their numbers, but let’s talk about Walmart. So if AI enables Walmart to lay off, I don’t even know how many jobs they have. Let’s call it 100,000 people. Let’s say, let’s say that their AI, they come up with a way for their AI things to just replace. They have no employees anymore, right? And there’s a they lay off 100,000 people. That is hundreds of billions of dollars that go straight to the bottom line. Their profits are going to go up like crazy. And if that happens, their stock their stock price will go up like crazy, right? Because they’re so much more profitable. That’s right. So who cares about jobs anyway? That’s right. Just earnings, pure earnings. It’s earnings. So let’s talk about Walmart. What did that tell you? Well, you know,

Jordan Roach
Walmart is a good one that the market watches very closely, just a broad based indicator for the health of consumer. I mean, because they’ve diversified, they have grocery side, at the retail side, you know, you can go in person, they have stuff that you can get digitally. So oftentimes, the market looks at Walmart to figure out, are people still buying broadly, a strength consumer. And Walmart came out with actually, pretty positive forward guidance. Sales were up. They were fairly upbeat for their forecasts over next year. So that maybe says, you know, we’ve been talking so much about AI, but maybe consumer is okay,

Ken Moraif
okay. So we have good jobs numbers, even though the unemployment rose, and we’ll talk about that in just a second, as to why. Our theory is that the unemployment number may become more and more irrelevant over time. But the fact remains that Jobs did go up. It was, it was double. That’s right, expected. So that and they, we need them people to have jobs to buy stuff from Walmart. That’s the thing, isn’t it? So Walmart came in and they basically told us, the consumer seems to be okay. Jobs seems to say the same thing. Yes. So overall, that’s a pretty positive situation, absolutely positive. All right, so now let’s talk. Listen. So we’re, ladies and gentlemen, we are now officially going on AI bubble. Watch, okay? Because what we’re seeing out there is, there’s this guy out there. It is a balloon, right? And it’s the tech AI balloon, and there’s a guy out there who’s like, pumping this thing, and this balloon is gradually getting bigger and bigger and bigger, and is it going to pop? We don’t know, but we want to be ready if it does, right? We want to be prepared for that. But Nvidia came out and blew the roof off.

Jordan Roach
Yeah, I mean, like a lot of people watch Walmart to see the consumer right now, for better, for worse, Nvidia is the broader indicator for AI, right? You look at Nvidia and kind of everyone says AI is going to go based on how Nvidia does and so for them to come out and Ruby much broadly across the board, have beat estimates, have strong forward guidance. Everyone said, Okay, maybe we’re not really close to the end. Maybe we have more room to run here. Yeah. I

Ken Moraif
mean, what’s that? What’s his name? Jensen. Jensen, yeah, he said that they sold out, right? They’re sold out. The demand is so great, and they’re working on satisfying that demand. They’re going to ramp up, they’re gonna do all this stuff so they’ve got a runway still, yes, but as we’ve talked about on previous programs, the eventually, what’s going to happen if you look at previous build outs of infrastructure, and we’ve talked on previous programs about the railroads and how the railroad stocks were so big because they’re building the railroads right? That’s going to be fantastic. We’re going to ship stuff across the country, and it’s going to be so cheap and wonderful. And they built all the railroads out. And then they realized, well, wait a second, nobody knows how to put railroad cars on it. We haven’t figured that one out. And nobody knows how to make refrigerated railroad cars to transport the food across. And all those towns we thought were going to get built along the railroad tracks, that’s going to take years to happen. And all of a sudden, all those railroad stocks that were flying up like through the roof crashed. Yes, same thing happened with the Internet. Yes, they’re going to build out this infrastructure. And then all of a sudden, it’s like, well, how do we even use this thing? We don’t know. And now we have aI infrastructure being built. At some point it’s going to get built out. You know, right now, it looks like it’s not. We’re nowhere near that. So there’s probably a lot of ramp up for these stocks, but at some point this balloon is going to get over inflated and could pop

Jordan Roach
potentially. And so you know, the honestly, the hope is we don’t get too, too optimistic to where there’s no ability to bring prices down to a reasonable level without just crashing that whole market. So you know, the concern we would have now is one, the market needs a bunch of companies like Nvidia committing tons, billions and billions of dollars for the infrastructure build out, because you’ve all this infrastructure needed. And then on the back end, what eventually has to happen is this leads to productivity, to sales, to new industries. And so if, if capital expenditures start slowing down because companies either don’t have the cash to now to put it out and now they have to finance it, that could be a problem the market has to deal with if, on the eventually, the capex continues, but all this earnings growth that we’ve seen the last few years that slows or goes negative again, that’s a big wall.

Ken Moraif
You know, I remember, I guess I’m aging myself here, but I remember, at midnight of y, k, you know, there was a reporter who went out, and I was watching this guy, and he was testing to see if every because everybody thought, oh my gosh, when it turns the midnight, you know, one second after midnight, nothing’s going to work anymore, right? So we had this massive build up of all of our technology and everything leading into that because the binary number wasn’t going to work anymore, and so he was he went and put his card in the ATM machine to see if he could get money out. He was looking at the traffic lights to see if they would work, if the electricity was going to turn off. But because everybody was so scared of that moment, the infrastructure was so built out that when the when the second hand crossed over at one second after midnight, everybody had all the technology they needed. Nobody needed new phones. Nobody needed new technology. They bought it all. And that’s why the.com and the dot that whole burst, yep, this could happen again. That’s our concern. Now our strategy is designed to help us our investment protect strategy to give us an unlimited upside, meaning we will ride this wave as long as it wants to go yes, but with a tolerable downside, meaning that if the wave decides it’s going to crash on the rocks, we want to get out. And that’s what we did in November of 2007 that wave, the real estate wave, was massive, and then when it when it crashed, we did not participate in that, right? So how does, how do you feel? How do you see this playing out, if this is, in fact, the next big bubble burst coming? Well, it’s

Jordan Roach
very helpful, because it’s given us a framework to know when we need to actually make a decision, because the easiest thing to do right now would be, there’s so much noise, and start making decisions in advance of something that may or may not actually ever play out, or even be playing out. Now it’s quieting our decision making, right? So it’s going to let us say, Yes, we see some issues here, but what we don’t know is, how long before we run into real issues. We don’t know that if there are issues, it might only take the market just to slight recalibration and then find another leg higher. And so it allows us just to be steady if things are able to broadly continue. But if this does turn into a bigger sell off, we know exactly when we need to make a decision.

Ken Moraif
Yeah. And you know, in fact, to that point, Alan Greenspan was the Federal Reserve chairman, who presided over y 2k and a year before the actual stock market crash, he said that those stocks were overpriced. He called it irrational exuberance. So he saw that, but he was a year ahead. So if you listened to him and you said, Well, he’s right, I’m going to sell everything, then you would have missed out on basically the biggest run up, which happened in that following year before the crash came. That’s right. So we want our strategy is designed to not do that. It’s designed to actually ride the wave as long as possible, until it turns and then when it does so, we want to have an unlimited upside with a tolerable downside. And so that’s I hope that that gives our clients our SCWPerS. I didn’t even mention our SCWPerS this week. All you SCWPerS out there, congratulations. I had a new one happen to me just this week. I had a new client. She’s just retired, wonderful. And so once our clients retire, we call them a SCWPer. And of course, SCWPer is the acronym for second childhood without parental supervision. And so we want you to go play and have fun and enjoy and don’t worry about all this boring financial stuff. Let us get the gray hair for you. And so that’s our job. And so thank you for watching. I hope that having our invest and protect strategy gives you the peace of mind of knowing that we are going to ride this thing, but we are now officially on bubble watch when it comes to all these tech stocks, which currently represent about 40% of the entire valuation the stock market. It’s getting kind of dicey, but we’re going to be safe as much as possible, so don’t worry. Let us do that. Thank you for watching, and we’ll talk soon.

Please note: transcript has been modified after the time of recording. 

Economic indicators and stock market performance cannot be predicted. Opinions expressed regarding the economy and the stock market belong solely to Ken Moraif on behalf of Retirement Planners of America and may not accurately portray actual future performance of the economy or stock market outcomes. Opinions expressed in this video is intended to be for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as investment advice for individuals who are not clients of Retirement Planners of America. All content provided is the opinion of Ken Moraif, CEO and Founder of RPOA Advisors, Inc. (d/b/a Retirement Planners of America ) (“Retirement Planners of America”, “RPOA”). ©Copyright 2023