• Global tension meets market resilience.
Concerns over China’s threats to restrict rare earth exports have stirred conversation, but markets appear steady — suggesting confidence that cooler heads will prevail.
• Rare earths: small elements, big influence.
These minerals are vital for technology and AI infrastructure. Any disruption could ripple through supply chains, but coordinated global pressure on China may help prevent escalation.
• Markets keeping their composure.
Despite trade-war headlines, stocks have held their ground, signaling optimism that negotiations will continue and conditions will normalize.
• A reminder of why we plan.
If tensions were to deepen, our Invest and Protect Strategy is built to respond — just as it did in 2008, when our system signaled “sell” ahead of the major downturn.
• Credit spreads signal calm — maybe too much.
The difference between corporate and government bond yields is at record lows, showing investor complacency. Historically, such calm often precedes short-term corrections.
• Fed focus shifts to jobs.
With hiring slowing, the Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates again soon — a move designed to support growth and stabilize the labor market.
• Mixed economic signals.
Stocks, bonds, and gold are all rising together — an unusual combination that may suggest the market is overly optimistic.
• Correction versus bear market.
A market pullback of 10–20 percent is considered a correction, not a crisis. We remain prepared for either scenario, but current indicators do not signal a major downturn.
• Patience is part of protection.
Our disciplined process helps filter out “noise” and avoid emotional reactions to headlines. We act when conditions truly warrant it — not before.
• Riding the wave with confidence.
As always, our goal is unlimited upside with a tolerable downside — letting you enjoy your retirement while we handle the strategy behind the scenes.

Transcript:
Ken Moraif
Hello everyone, and welcome to our Market Alert Video for today, which is October 17, 2025 and I hope this video finds you healthy, wealthy and wise. I hope all you SCWPerS out there are enjoying your second childhood without parental supervision, and all you clients that are endeavoring to become SCWPerS that I hope that we are on track and we’re getting you there. I’m sure we are. So thank you for watching. We have a lot to talk about, as we do every week, we’re going to have more fun than a human being should be allowed to have when talking about all of this boring of financial stuff. And this week’s going to be no exception. We have a ton of boring financial stuff. So first of all, we’re going to be talking about the China versus us and maybe the world. Maybe it’s a global trade war with China. What could that do the rare earths? Could that be the beginning of the next big, bad bear market? What are we going to do about it? Oh my gosh, lots to talk about there. Also this week, want to talk with you about credit spreads. Now, credit spreads are at the tightest they have been on record. And so want to do two things with you today. One is talk about, what is a credit spread. And then secondly, you know, why do we care? And again, should we do anything about it? And then also, the Federal Reserve is looking at jobs, and jobs are weakening. All the trends seem to be showing that. And so therefore, what are they likely to do at the end of this month? And how does that impact our investments? So we have a ton to talk about. So let’s get started. So let me bring into the fray, Jordan Roach, our Chief Investment Officer. And Jordan, looks like you are still in the black dungeon, right?

Jordan Roach
The dungeon of research. That’s right. This is where we do all the good work

Ken Moraif
that’s right now, you know, something that I don’t Did you see the Time Magazine picture that they put on the cover of Donald Trump? Yes, so I actually moved this camera up a little bit because, you know, I got a little bit of that thing happening right here. And so, you know, I’m vain, I’ll admit it. So I actually raised the camera a little

bit so that it wouldn’t worried about your angles. Yeah. So, yeah,

vanity, all right. So let’s, let’s talk about this whole China versus us thing. You know, first of all, rare earth is probably the most important ingredient of all when it comes to all of our technology and all this AI stuff that’s driving this market that’s getting all these new all time highs. And of course, if China were to cut that off, which they threatened to do with this letter that they sent to 25 nations, then that could bring on some pretty severe correction in our market. Wouldn’t you say absolutely?

Jordan Roach
I mean, certainly for the US markets, you know, it’s interesting. You know, a lot of the big, mega cap players in the US markets, couple things here derive their revenue from sales overseas. So if there’s back and forth there, that can be a problem. And of course, where we’re going with kind of this AI boom and theme, well, to make AI products, right, for all that computing power, for all those devices and semiconductors you need, right? The rare earths in China, in some ways, almost has a monopoly over them, and that’s where they’re trying to flex, you know, their muscles. And so, yes, if they started, I’m going to jack up supplies that could absolutely cascade throughout markets. So that’s where we get into a little back and forth where, you know, I think, for us and for now, it looks like some of the world, they’re joining us against them,

Ken Moraif
and that’s probably why the, well, the US, you know, the China coming out and threatening, basically 25 countries, including us, with this essentially an embargo on rare earth. You know, the Europeans are really complacent. It takes a lot to get them to, like, really do something that’s right. And so this was a wake up call. And so, you know, in many ways, it’s a good thing, because now they’re probably going to join us and say, Hey, China, if you want to do that, then we’ve got, you know, we’ll put 100% tariff on all your products and services as well, and we’ll destroy your economy. You’ll have unemployment at 30 or 40% you’ll have revolution on your hands. Your country will implode. So it’s kind of a mutual assured destruction thing happening,

Jordan Roach
right? Yeah, I think that’s right. I think, you know, China is trying to flex their hand. You know, they’re always dealing with their own political turmoil and economic turmoil that’s kind of persisted for the last decade or more. And I think the good news. Here for the US. It’s not now. It’s not just us versus them, like it has been, kind of the dominant theme. If European nations join us and then together, we have quite a bit of economic might hope it allows, you know, China not to sell it, you know, go down this path, and maybe it’s just a temporary flex, and we can come to terms and kind of, you know, live to five another

Ken Moraif
day. You know, to me, it feels a lot like they’ve learned from Donald Trump, right? You start with the nuclear option. We’re going to cut you off from Rare Earth. And then, okay, all right, all right. You know, I didn’t really mean it, and they’re going to back off from that. And you know, Trump starts with 140% tariffs, you know, out of the blue, and then he backs off from that. So to me, it feels like they’re doing the same sort of negotiating tactic that Donald Trump is doing, has done. And so probably the reason why the market has not reacted to all of this. So, I

Jordan Roach
mean, I think that’s right. I mean, the worst day, right? We saw, you know, two to 3% sell off, depending on which part of the US market you want to look at, maybe a little bit more. And more. And then since then, you know, we’ve recaptured a little bit that. Now we’re kind of just going sideways. So the market seems to be saying they’re going to work it out.

Ken Moraif
Yeah. And, you know, the important whenever we do these things, we always want to talk about, you know, what would we do about it? You know, to give some peace of mind there. And basically, you know, with our invest and protect strategy, as with 2008 when the stock market from peak to trough, you know, went down what 57% our strategy said to sell in November of 07 and stay out till June of oh nine. So, you know, our beloved and most valued clients that we will, you know, if we hit our sell signal, our strategy says to sell, we’ll do the same thing. And the clients that followed our advice back in oh eight were out of the market pretty much for the entire year, and did not suffer the losses that that year represented. So you know, we’re not near our sell signal right now, right? But we but certainly, if this thing devolves into a terrible situation, we could get there and it could cause us to have a sell.

Jordan Roach
Absolutely, yeah, we’re, you know, we’re prepared, but we’re not going to front run anything. We’re going to kind of let markets play out and see what, you know, what comes

Ken Moraif
Yeah, okay, so let’s talk about, okay, China versus us. Ho hum. No big deal. Nobody cares, right? So let’s talk about the credit spreads. So credit spreads right now at our are very, very tight. In fact, the record tightness. And yeah, so explain to us what on earth is a credit spread in the first

Jordan Roach
place? Yeah. So a credit spread, you know, that’s that’s a way of looking at what the bond market is seeing in terms of pricing and risk. And what you’re looking at with with credit is you’re usually looking at, there’s two types, right? Very safe credit, corporate credit, corporate bonds. So just like you know, Apple has stock, Apple also issues their own debt, their own bonds, credit, and typically how it’s priced is relative to treasuries, right? Which is ultimately the safe the guarantee, that’s the benchmark for safety. And so what you’re looking at when you’re looking at spreads, is the relationship between how much investors, how much risk you know, they perceive in the market, how much they’re going to be compensated for that, relative to saying, if I’m going to own debt, I’m just going to buy treasuries, and you’re watching that move up and down.

Ken Moraif
So the spread is the difference between, let’s say, riskier bonds, and the Treasury, which is considered to be the safest bond, right? So, so

Jordan Roach
that’s right, huh? At least for now, right? There’s been some talk of maybe corporate spreads are the new thing, right with this global debt issue. There would house but yes, historically,

Ken Moraif
theory as the spread between the interest rate that the government bonds are paying the treasuries and, let’s say corporate bonds are paying as the interest rate spread, that spread gets farther and farther apart. Basically, what the market is saying is you’re riskier than treasuries, and so therefore you have to pay us a higher interest rate. So that causes the difference that spread. That’s exactly but right now, they’re practically touching. So basically, the market is saying that we think that corporate bonds are just as risky as US Treasury bonds. So what does that tell you? What does that tell you? Yeah, and so

Jordan Roach
it’s very interesting, because there’s two parts of this there. It’s that could be perception they have on treasuries and what the Fed is going to do, maybe lowering interest rates. It also has a perception of, you know, how healthy are the fundamentals across all these corporations and these companies issuing the bonds, and so there’s both sides of it that they’re looking at. But effectively, what it’s meaning is there’s a level of complacency here, right? Where expectation is that a

Ken Moraif
level, a level, what? And

Jordan Roach
maybe historic levels. Again, there’s different types of spread.

Ken Moraif
It’s a historic level of complacency. My goodness, we have a trade war going on. We’ve got and nobody cares. We’re gonna talk about jobs in a minute. It’s like the credit spreads are so tight. Basically, the market, the bond market, is saying, big deal. We don’t care about anything. And the stock market doesn’t seem to care about anything either.

Jordan Roach
No, I think that’s right. I mean, I think all of this noise, I think, you know, stock market and the bond market is looking right past, right? I think, I think they’re looking at monetary supply is going to open up a back again. Rates are going to come down, and this is going to take us to new levels. Yeah.

Ken Moraif
So let’s talk about the the knight in shining armor, the Federal Reserve. You know, at the end of this month, they’re going to tell us what they’re going to do with interest rates, but all the noise that they’re making is that they’re probably going to lower interest rates, and that’s primarily because they’ve switched their focus from reducing inflation to addressing the jobs picture. And jobs are weakening by all measures. People are not firing anybody, but they’re not hiring anyone either, so that the new jobs are becoming more and more difficult, and so that’s causing the jobs to weaken. But if you have the company start to fire people, then the nominator and the denominator would be affected, and that could really cause the jobs numbers to fall off a cliff.

Jordan Roach
I think that’s right. I mean, right now it’s really interesting. I mean, I do still think, you know, you’re not seeing like in 2022 for instance, when a lot of people are getting worried about, you know, Russia, Ukraine, and the debt cycle and the Fed, you saw these companies firing in advance. We’re not actually seeing a lot of private sector layoffs in, like an advance and some things are coming. What we’re seeing is they’re just not hiring. No new positions are opening, and there’s still a lot of people looking and those are two different things. And that could be yes, if that turns from what we’re not hiring to No, we’re actually doing something here that’s a whole nother variable market have to price in, and it’s not having to worry about right now. You know, it’s just kind of just kind of a small seam, maybe in the economy, in the business market, versus, you know, real issues.

Ken Moraif
So the stock market is saying, everything’s fantastic. New all time highs. We don’t care about China, we don’t care about jobs, we don’t care about all of that. We’re just going to keep going up. The bond market is saying, hey, everything is fine. Credit spreads are so tight, meaning that, you know, they believe there’s no risk in the market right now, even with the on the bond side. So everybody is like, so hunky dory, and everything is fine.

Jordan Roach
Yeah, that’s what sets us up, right? That’s what sets us up, usually for corrections, not necessarily bears, but for something new to come in. Because what you don’t usually see, you don’t usually see. This is like I was we you had a nice client event in our Plano office. And this year is actually the the opposite of 2022 the exact opposite. So 2022 you had stock, selling off, Bond, selling off, gold selling off. Everything’s gone this year. You have gold going to the moon. Bonds are having their best year since 19 stocks are hitting all time highs, and you don’t usually see those things moving all together at the same pace, so probably due for a little bit of maybe of a setup. So

Ken Moraif
at the very least, it looks like we’re setting up for a correction. And again, definition of terms a correction is a drop in the market of more than 10, but less than 20% once it gets over 20 becomes a bear market. So again, right now, we’re basically still looking forward with optimism. I guess. You know, Groucho Marx used to say, any club that would have me as a member. I don’t want to be a member of so I feel really weird being a member of the club that, yeah, we’re going to still keep going up. But for now, that’s where we are. What gives me solace is we have our strategy, you know, in the event that we’re wrong, which certainly is possible. And we do see, you know, jobs layoffs start. We do see inflation pick up because of the tariffs. This China thing does fall out of bed. Rare earths do become, you know, cut off those things could cause a significant bear market and a significant recession for that matter. So we’re always ready for that. But right now with our investor protect strategy, but for right now, that doesn’t seem to be something we’re going to be enacting anytime soon. No.

Jordan Roach
Gil, like you said, Things do change, right? I mean, there’s a lot here where the market’s hoping for a lot of things, but at the same point, you know what our strategy does allow us to do is just kind of use all this as just noise and not act on it. Because it would be very easy right now to act on something, but it just allows us just to kind of kind of let things move, let things play out, let things breathe. And then we go from there.

Ken Moraif
Yeah, as we always say about our strategy, we want to have an unlimited upside with a tolerable downside. We want to ride the wave as long as possible, with the knowledge that if it turns and goes south in a dramatic. Way that we have a strategy to address that too well. Jordan, thank you for joining us once again. And ladies and gentlemen, I hope this video did find you healthy, wealthy and wise. Please share this with your friends and family and business associates. We want to help as many people as we possibly can, and all of you out there, I hope things are going well, so thanks for watching, and we’ll talk soon.

Please note: transcript has been modified after the time of recording. 

Economic indicators and stock market performance cannot be predicted. Opinions expressed regarding the economy and the stock market belong solely to Ken Moraif on behalf of Retirement Planners of America and may not accurately portray actual future performance of the economy or stock market outcomes. Opinions expressed in this video is intended to be for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as investment advice for individuals who are not clients of Retirement Planners of America. All content provided is the opinion of Ken Moraif, CEO and Founder of RPOA Advisors, Inc. (d/b/a Retirement Planners of America ) (“Retirement Planners of America”, “RPOA”). ©Copyright 2023