• Ken is still enjoying a much-deserved break, so CIO Jordan Roach provided this week’s update. Rest assured, the RPOA team continues to keep a close eye on the markets on your behalf.
• Jobs data was mixed this week: payrolls came in weaker than expected, while unemployment remains low. The market is interpreting this as a sign the Fed may be more likely to cut rates.
• Markets were down Friday, but overall it was still a positive week. One down day after a good week is not unusual and does not change our outlook.
• The Federal Reserve meets September 16–17, and expectations are growing for a rate cut. If that happens, it could lower borrowing costs and support continued economic growth.
• Inflation has been relatively quiet over the past three months, which gives the Fed more flexibility to support jobs and growth.
• Lower rates could help everyday Americans with potential refinancing opportunities for mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards while also supporting corporate activity.
• Clients often ask, “Are we due for another 2008-style crash?” While no one can predict perfectly, the last five years have already seen three bear markets, which may have already helped reset valuations.
• Importantly, our Invest and Protect Strategy provides a disciplined framework for when to take action. This means you don’t have to guess or react emotionally. We monitor the data daily and make adjustments when needed.
• Historically, August and September tend to be choppier months, so some short-term volatility would not surprise us. But broadly, we believe the outlook into year-end remains constructive if the Fed begins cutting rates.
• Most importantly: we are watching the details so you don’t have to. Our mission remains to help your money last as long as you do, so you can focus on enjoying retirement without worrying about every headline

Transcript

Jordan Roach
Hello everyone. Thank you for joining us. Today is our weekly market alert video for Friday, September 5. 2025 thank you so much for joining us. I’m Jordan Roach, the Chief Investment Officer for retirement plan areas of America. And what you’ll notice again, like last week, is Ken’s not with us. He’s still on vacation, still living in that second childhood without parental supervision. He is not retired yet. He sends his regards, but there’s a lot to talk about, so let’s go ahead and dive right in.

Thursday and Friday, we’ve had a lot of jobs data. We’ve had initial jobless claims, we’ve had payroll data, we’ve had the unemployment rate. I think the market’s getting a little bit worried, but it’s also, in some ways, getting excited. The interesting thing we saw today was we had payroll data be very, very weak. Maybe it’s showing signs that the market, the jobs market, the labor market, is deteriorating. A little bit. Cracks are coming in, and the market started actually off on an initial jump this morning on Friday, and it’s sold off since. So again, like we’ve talked about before, the first hour of trading a lot of times, is not the initial reaction. You want to see how things go afterwards. So what does it mean? Well, I think actually, you know, today, the market being down after some poor jobs data is not necessarily meaningful. Again, we’ve had a pretty good week this week overall. So one day being down, I don’t think is necessarily a bad thing, but I do think it’s going to probably give the market very strong hope that we’re going to lower rates. We have the September Fed meeting coming in two weeks, the 16th and 17th, and we’ve had probabilities go that it’s almost guaranteed the Fed was going to cut. Then we had some high inflation prints, thinking, Uh oh, maybe they won’t be able to and now we’re seeing some deterioration, maybe in the labor market. The market, again, is starting to price in fed cuts, and we’re seeing yields drop down to almost lows that we’ve seen from 12 months ago today. So it’s going to be really interesting. Now, I think the main thing we’re going to think through and wrestle with is which, which is true, is jobs weak? Which signals a weakening economy, or maybe going to be a weak economy, or is actually the economy doing quite well overall? You know, I think right now, if you look into the jobs data, a lot of the negativity has been around what the what employers expect to do going forward. Well, unemployment rates are very, very low. There is still a lot of looming uncertainty. So for employers that are surveyed to say, well, I don’t plan on adding a lot of new jobs. I don’t plan on doing a whole lot of new hiring. I don’t know if that’s really that big of a surprise at all. Again, we’ve been in this kind of low 4% unemployment rate since, you know, for the last four years, last three years, and at some point it is going to tick up. So if we actually look at the economic side of the house, not just the jobs data, we’ve actually had more positive surprises versus estimates than negative. So I think the economy is churning. And I think some of the reason that we have hope or optimism, optimism going forward is that if the Fed is going to be able to pull rates down, that could spur economic activity. That means borrowing access to credit is easier, it’s cheaper. That maybe means people can refinance their auto loans or mortgage rates or credit cards, that can improve cash flow for not only institutions, but just the everyday people, just you and I out there, and that could continue this next leg that we’re hoping for in the broader market cycle. So I do think there is optimism. But I do think the you know, the market broadly right now is pricing in the Fed has to cut rates, to sure up the labor side, the economic side, because again, inflation data has been pretty quiet, you know, outside of one print pretty quiet over the last three months. So again, we’ll see what the Fed does in a couple weeks. It’ll be interesting. Now, what I would say, and I had a good conversation with with one of our clients this week, a good one with prospective clients. The questions that I’m getting a lot of is, how long, though, can this continue? Right? We have this AI theme. We have high, you know, valuations, the market’s been blowing and going largely point to point over the last 14 years. At some point we have to have an Oh, eight, don’t we? Is now a bad time to invest. Now, we don’t know. We don’t know, right? We’ve also seen in the last few years, three bear markets every other year in the last five years, right? So maybe that is enough for the market to recalibrate things to where maybe the market’s not going to need a big reset that we’re used to. Maybe an oh eight is not coming. Now, I don’t think, personally, that’s probably the case, but it is interesting to think that structurally, there’s been a lot of negativity, a lot of downward and upward market action over the last 15 years, and maybe this new structure of the market, the new regime is maybe the big O eights don’t have to, don’t have to be right on the horizon for us. So we don’t know. Now what we try to do, as everyone knows, with our invest and protect strategy, is provide that discipline framework for when we would take corrective action. It for when we would say we want to do something, because it’s very easy to look at all the headline news, to look at all the data and say it’s all bad I don’t want to invest and what would have happened the last couple years, as all this negativity kind of persists and permeates, you miss out on a lot. The other thing that people can do, and this would be when the market’s already down, is assume that it has to be better at every little at every little glimmer of hope, and the market turns lower. So what we’re trying to do is it’s pride a consistent framework to KNOW WHEN DO WE WANT to be offensive, when do we want to start thinking about defense, and so that’s how we use that framework to hopefully make good decision. So a lot to think through. September is going to be an interesting month. You know, broadly, if you go the last three years, we have seen pullbacks, downturns every August, September period. So with the Fed coming in, with the market being wound up the way it is, I wouldn’t be surprised to see it again. But broadly, we do think the Fed, if they do cut, will probably be good through the end of the year. So we’ll see where this goes again. Let us worry about this boring financial stuff for you. Let us hopefully bring that peace of mind. What I would say please is Subscribe Like to our podcast. Let us know there are things that are on your mind that you’d like for Ken and I to discuss, to think through outside, just the things that are already on our mind. Please give us that feedback very hope helpful to us and hopefully helpful to you guys as well. So thank you so much for listening to this week’s market alert. Look forward to talking to you guys again in a week. Thanks so much.

Please note: transcript has been modified after the time of recording. 

Economic indicators and stock market performance cannot be predicted. Opinions expressed regarding the economy and the stock market belong solely to Ken Moraif on behalf of Retirement Planners of America and may not accurately portray actual future performance of the economy or stock market outcomes. Opinions expressed in this video is intended to be for informational purposes only and is not intended to be used as investment advice for individuals who are not clients of Retirement Planners of America. All content provided is the opinion of Ken Moraif, CEO and Founder of RPOA Advisors, Inc. (d/b/a Retirement Planners of America ) (“Retirement Planners of America”, “RPOA”). ©Copyright 2023